The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Won Il Kwon v Apollo Gomes

Kickoff: 2026-09-08 23:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Won Il Kwon (Local)

Prediction 53.49%1.87fair odd
EV -2.12%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -2.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.59%53.56%53.49%54.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.791.791.8357.47%56.00%55.87%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Apollo Gomes (Visit)

Prediction 46.51%2.15fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -2.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.31%46.44%46.51%47.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.042.032.1049.50%48.91%49.26%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Won Il Kwon (Local): 53.49%; Apollo Gomes (Visit): 46.51%. For Won Il Kwon (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.87. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.83, with an expected value of -2.12%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.59%EV -2.12%E -1.16%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.41%EV -5.58%E -2.75%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-08 23:34
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.23%EV -3.19%E -1.76%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.77%EV -4.19%E -2.03%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-08 23:25
FanDuel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -4.26%E -2.38%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.26%E -1.57%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-08 23:29
Grosvenor🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.26%E -2.38%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -6.05%E -2.99%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-08 23:34
TABtouch🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.26%E -2.38%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -6.05%E -2.99%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-08 23:34
Unibet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.26%E -2.38%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -6.05%E -2.99%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-08 23:34
ReBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -4.79%E -2.69%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -6.05%E -2.99%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-08 23:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.40%E -3.65%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.65%E -2.27%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-08 19:15
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.93%E -3.98%K -9.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -2.33%E -1.11%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-08 22:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.88I 53.19%NM 53.23%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.77%-0.1%2026-09-08 23:30
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 50.00%2.00I 50.00%NM 50.00%0.0%2026-09-08 23:30
ProphetX◎1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87%0.4%2026-09-08 23:33
Novig◎1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%9.0%2026-09-08 23:30