The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Will Rentz v Luis Francischinelli

Kickoff: 2026-10-14 00:25 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Will Rentz (Local)

Prediction 29.08%3.44fair odd
EV +7.31%
Edge +1.98%
Kelly +2.72%
Growth +0.199%

assuming max odds 3.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.05%29.08%29.37%31.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.153.053.6933.33%31.73%32.79%27.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luis Francischinelli (Visit)

Prediction 70.92%1.41fair odd
EV -0.714%
Edge -0.510%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.18%70.92%70.63%73.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.361.371.4076.92%73.39%72.99%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Will Rentz (Local): 29.08%; Luis Francischinelli (Visit): 70.92%. For Will Rentz (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.44. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.69, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯3.69I 27.10%NM 26.05%EV +7.31%E +1.98%K +2.72%G +0.199%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.95%EV -7.81%E -6.00%K -26.02%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-14 00:09
Pinnacle🎯3.27I 30.58%NM 29.37%EV -4.90%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.63%EV -3.55%E -2.61%K -9.86%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-13 23:45
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -11.30%E -3.71%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.13%E -1.55%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-13 18:50
TABtouch🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -11.30%E -3.71%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.13%E -1.55%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-13 18:49
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -11.30%E -3.71%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.13%E -1.55%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-13 18:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -11.30%E -3.71%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -4.26%E -3.16%K -12.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-13 18:39
TAB🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -11.30%E -3.71%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -4.26%E -3.16%K -12.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-13 23:03
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -12.76%E -4.25%K -6.38%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -0.714%E -0.510%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-12 22:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎3.50I 28.57%NM 28.57%1.40I 71.43%NM 71.43%0.0%2026-10-13 23:44
Novig◎3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73%1.37I 72.99%NM 72.27%1.0%2026-10-14 00:10
Polymarket◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27%1.1%2026-10-14 00:10
ProphetX◎3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%8.0%2026-10-14 00:10