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Vlasto Cepo v Gilbert Urbina
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vlasto Cepo (Local)
Prediction 73.78%1.36fair odd
EV +0.335%
Edge +0.246%
Kelly +0.931%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.84%73.81%73.89%78.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.291.291.3681.97%77.50%77.52%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Gilbert Urbina (Visit)
Prediction 26.22%3.81fair odd
EV +17.75%
Edge +3.95%
Kelly +5.08%
Growth +0.902%
assuming max odds 4.49
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.37%26.19%26.11%30.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.603.604.4931.75%27.75%27.78%22.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vlasto Cepo (Local): 73.78%; Gilbert Urbina (Visit): 26.22%. For Gilbert Urbina (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.81. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.49, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.75%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.63%EV -9.99%E -8.19%K -45.42%G +0.000% | 4.49I 22.27%NM 21.37%EV +17.75%E +3.95%K +5.08%G +0.902% | 4.2% | 2026-08-01 17:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.63%EV -9.99%E -8.19%K -45.42%G +0.000% | 4.49I 22.27%NM 21.37%EV +17.75%E +3.95%K +5.08%G +0.902% | 4.2% | 2026-08-01 17:24 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -9.26%E -7.52%K -40.24%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -0.348%E -0.092%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-01 17:28 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.83%E -3.74%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -1.66%E -0.443%K -0.603%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-01 08:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.83%E -3.74%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -1.66%E -0.443%K -0.603%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-28 12:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.45%EV -5.57%E -4.35%K -19.88%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.55%EV -2.18%E -0.585%K -0.800%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-01 17:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -4.09%E -3.15%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV -2.97%E -0.803%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-01 08:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -4.83%E -3.74%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -2.97%E -0.803%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.57%E -4.35%K -19.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.97%E -0.803%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-28 12:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -6.30%E -4.96%K -23.35%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -2.97%E -0.803%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 17:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -4.09%E -3.15%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -4.28%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-25 18:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.83%E -3.74%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.28%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-01 17:27 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.03%EV -6.30%E -4.96%K -23.35%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.97%EV -5.07%E -1.40%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-01 01:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.83%E -3.74%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.59%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.83%E -3.74%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.59%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.83%E -3.74%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.59%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.83%E -3.74%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.59%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.83%E -3.74%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.59%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.83%E -3.74%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.59%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.83%E -3.74%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.59%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.83%E -3.74%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.59%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.83%E -3.74%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.59%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.83%E -3.74%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.59%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.57%E -4.35%K -19.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -5.59%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-30 08:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.78%E -6.22%K -31.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -5.59%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-01 13:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.09%E -3.15%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -6.90%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-28 17:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.09%E -3.15%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -6.90%E -1.94%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-01 17:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -1.88%E -1.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -8.22%E -2.35%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-01 17:24 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.23%EV -1.88%E -1.41%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.77%EV -9.26%E -2.68%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-01 17:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -2.62%E -1.98%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -9.53%E -2.76%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-31 17:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.09%E -3.15%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -9.53%E -2.76%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-01 17:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.43%EV +0.335%E +0.246%K +0.931%G +0.003% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.57%EV -10.84%E -3.19%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-01 17:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.09%E -3.15%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -10.84%E -3.19%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-01 08:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.09%E -3.15%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -10.84%E -3.19%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-01 14:24 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%EV -7.04%E -5.59%K -27.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -10.84%E -3.19%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-01 06:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.83%EV -7.78%E -6.22%K -31.12%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -12.15%E -3.63%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV +0.335%E +0.246%K +0.931%G +0.003% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -13.46%E -4.08%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-01 17:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -4.83%E -3.74%K -16.65%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -14.77%E -4.55%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-01 17:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV +0.335%E +0.246%K +0.931%G +0.003% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -17.39%E -5.52%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 17:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.54% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 26.46% | -0.0% | 2026-08-01 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.29% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.71% | 0.2% | 2026-08-01 17:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 0.8% | 2026-08-01 17:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 0.8% | 2026-08-01 17:24 |
| Novig◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.80% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 27.20% | 1.0% | 2026-08-01 17:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.58% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.42% | 1.3% | 2026-08-01 17:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.56% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44% | 2.1% | 2026-08-01 17:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.73% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.27% | 2.5% | 2026-08-01 17:30 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.40% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 25.73% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.1% | 2026-08-01 01:29 |
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