Language:English
Vitor Petrino v Steven Asplund
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vitor Petrino (Local)
Prediction 65.77%1.52fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.898%
Kelly -2.70%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.59%65.53%65.73%67.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.451.441.5071.43%69.14%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Steven Asplund (Visit)
Prediction 34.23%2.92fair odd
EV -0.728%
Edge -0.251%
Kelly -0.383%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.56%34.47%34.27%36.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.792.802.9038.17%35.82%35.71%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vitor Petrino (Local): 65.77%; Steven Asplund (Visit): 34.23%. For Steven Asplund (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.92. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.90, with an expected value of -0.728%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -1.35%E -0.898%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -7.57%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -1.35%E -0.898%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -7.57%E -2.81%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-14 21:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.94%EV -1.35%E -0.898%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.06%EV -8.94%E -3.36%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-14 21:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -1.35%E -0.898%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -10.31%E -3.94%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-14 20:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -2.66%E -1.80%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -5.86%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-14 17:22 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.66%E -1.80%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.29%E -3.50%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 17:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.13%EV -3.32%E -2.26%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.87%EV -1.75%E -0.611%K -0.938%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-14 23:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.32%E -2.26%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -4.15%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-14 21:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.32%E -2.26%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -4.15%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-14 22:51 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -3.98%E -2.72%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -4.15%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-14 17:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%EV -3.98%E -2.72%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV -6.89%E -2.53%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 17:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -4.64%E -3.20%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -2.44%E -0.856%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-09 11:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.64%E -3.20%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.86%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 17:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -5.29%E -3.68%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -0.728%E -0.251%K -0.383%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-14 15:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -5.29%E -3.68%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -0.728%E -0.251%K -0.383%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-14 15:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.29%E -3.68%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.44%E -0.856%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-13 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.29%E -3.68%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.44%E -0.856%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-13 13:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.29%E -3.68%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.44%E -0.856%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-13 13:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.29%E -3.68%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.15%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-14 19:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.29%E -3.68%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.15%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-14 21:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.29%E -3.68%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.15%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.29%E -3.68%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.15%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.29%E -3.68%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.15%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.29%E -3.68%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.15%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.29%E -3.68%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.86%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.29%E -3.68%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.86%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-14 21:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.29%E -3.68%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.86%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-14 21:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.95%E -4.16%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.15%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.95%E -4.16%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.15%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.95%E -4.16%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.15%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.95%E -4.16%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.15%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.95%E -4.16%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.15%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.95%E -4.16%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.15%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.95%E -4.16%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.15%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.95%E -4.16%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.15%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.95%E -4.16%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.15%E -1.48%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-14 20:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.61%E -4.65%K -15.74%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -0.728%E -0.251%K -0.383%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-13 21:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -7.27%E -5.15%K -17.72%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -2.44%E -0.856%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-13 20:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.92%E -5.66%K -19.81%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -0.728%E -0.251%K -0.383%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-14 11:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.92%E -5.66%K -19.81%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.86%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-14 17:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.59% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 33.41% | 0.1% | 2026-03-14 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78% | 0.7% | 2026-03-14 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78% | 0.7% | 2026-03-14 23:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04% | 0.9% | 2026-03-14 23:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94% | 0.9% | 2026-03-14 23:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63% | 1.1% | 2026-03-14 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.91% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.09% | 1.1% | 2026-03-14 23:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.06% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.94% | 2.3% | 2026-03-14 23:20 |