Language:English
Vince Morales v Colby Thicknesse
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vince Morales (Local)
Prediction 44.75%2.23fair odd
EV +23.07%
Edge +8.39%
Kelly +13.19%
Growth +3.04%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.05%44.55%44.53%53.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.742.032.052.7557.47%49.17%48.78%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Colby Thicknesse (Visit)
Prediction 55.25%1.81fair odd
EV +10.49%
Edge +5.25%
Kelly +10.49%
Growth +1.10%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.95%55.45%55.47%65.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.771.772.0070.42%56.54%56.66%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vince Morales (Local): 44.75%; Colby Thicknesse (Visit): 55.25%. For Vince Morales (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.23. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +23.07%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV +23.07%E +8.39%K +13.19%G +3.04% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -21.55%E -15.18%K -51.31%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-02 09:37 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV +9.65%E +3.94%K +6.65%G +0.642% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.82%EV -19.89%E -13.72%K -44.21%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-02 09:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV +0.697%E +0.310%K +0.558%G +0.004% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -8.84%E -5.36%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-02 09:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -0.645%E -0.291%K -0.529%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -6.08%E -3.58%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-02 09:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -1.54%E -0.700%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -7.19%E -4.28%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-01 14:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -1.54%E -0.700%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -7.19%E -4.28%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-01 14:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.54%E -0.700%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.74%E -4.63%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 09:32 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.90%EV -3.33%E -1.54%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.10%EV -2.77%E -1.57%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-02 09:26 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.78%E -1.76%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.08%E -3.58%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-01 19:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.78%E -1.76%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.08%E -3.58%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-01 10:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -3.78%E -1.76%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -6.63%E -3.93%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-01 19:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -3.78%E -1.76%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -7.19%E -4.28%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-02 03:41 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -3.78%E -1.76%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -7.19%E -4.28%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-02 09:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -4.23%E -1.97%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.87%E -2.23%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-02 09:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.13%EV -4.23%E -1.97%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.87%EV -6.63%E -3.93%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-02 09:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.47%EV -5.12%E -2.42%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.53%EV -9.95%E -6.10%K -15.79%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-02 09:38 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -6.02%E -2.86%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.22%E -1.25%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-02 09:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -6.02%E -2.86%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.32%E -1.90%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-02 07:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.25%E -4.03%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.08%E -3.58%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -8.25%E -4.03%K -7.86%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -6.63%E -3.93%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-02 09:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -10.49%E -5.25%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -2.22%E -1.25%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 09:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -10.49%E -5.25%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -2.22%E -1.25%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 09:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -12.73%E -6.53%K -13.40%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV +1.10%E +0.601%K +1.32%G +0.015% | 5.9% | 2026-05-02 09:41 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -14.52%E -7.60%K -15.96%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV +1.10%E +0.601%K +1.32%G +0.015% | 7.0% | 2026-05-02 09:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -14.52%E -7.60%K -15.96%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -0.558%E -0.310%K -0.697%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-02 09:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -15.86%E -8.44%K -18.02%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%EV +2.20%E +1.19%K +2.59%G +0.057% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 09:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -15.86%E -8.44%K -18.02%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%EV +2.20%E +1.19%K +2.59%G +0.057% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 09:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%EV -17.20%E -9.30%K -20.24%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV +3.86%E +2.05%K +4.39%G +0.169% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 09:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%EV -17.20%E -9.30%K -20.24%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV +3.86%E +2.05%K +4.39%G +0.169% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 09:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -17.20%E -9.30%K -20.24%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV +2.20%E +1.19%K +2.59%G +0.057% | 8.1% | 2026-05-02 09:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.41%EV -18.10%E -9.89%K -21.81%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.59%EV +2.76%E +1.48%K +3.21%G +0.088% | 8.4% | 2026-05-02 09:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -18.10%E -9.89%K -21.81%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%EV +2.20%E +1.19%K +2.59%G +0.057% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 09:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -19.44%E -10.80%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV +10.49%E +5.25%K +10.49%G +1.10% | 5.6% | 2026-05-02 09:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -19.44%E -10.80%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV +7.73%E +3.96%K +8.14%G +0.629% | 6.8% | 2026-05-02 09:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.39%EV -19.89%E -11.11%K -25.18%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.61%EV +8.83%E +4.48%K +9.11%G +0.805% | 6.6% | 2026-05-02 09:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -20.78%E -11.74%K -26.99%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV +10.49%E +5.25%K +10.49%G +1.10% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 09:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.16%EV -20.78%E -11.74%K -26.99%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.84%EV +6.62%E +3.43%K +7.12%G +0.472% | 8.3% | 2026-05-02 09:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.33%EV -22.13%E -12.72%K -29.90%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.67%EV +5.52%E +2.89%K +6.07%G +0.335% | 9.8% | 2026-05-02 09:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.79% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 57.21% | -0.1% | 2026-05-02 09:32 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.84% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 56.16% | 0.0% | 2026-05-02 09:29 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14% | 0.6% | 2026-05-02 09:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35% | 4.2% | 2026-05-02 09:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.58% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.42% | 7.1% | 2026-05-02 09:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.22% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.78% | 8.5% | 2026-05-02 09:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.35% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 47.65% | 11.0% | 2026-05-02 09:41 |
| Novig◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 60.16% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 39.84% | 66.2% | 2026-05-02 09:40 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.88% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.25% | 8.5% | 2026-05-01 22:09 |