Language:English
Vicente Luque v Tresean Gore
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vicente Luque (Local)
Prediction 49.76%2.01fair odd
EV -1.48%
Edge -0.748%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.98
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.30%49.69%50.00%51.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.911.901.9855.56%52.43%52.63%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tresean Gore (Visit)
Prediction 50.24%1.99fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.68%50.31%50.00%51.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.891.901.9555.56%52.80%52.63%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vicente Luque (Local): 49.76%; Tresean Gore (Visit): 50.24%. For Vicente Luque (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.01. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.98, with an expected value of -1.48%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.97%EV -1.48%E -0.748%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.03%EV -4.54%E -2.39%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-15 23:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.70%EV -1.48%E -0.748%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.30%EV -5.54%E -2.95%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-15 23:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -1.48%E -0.748%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -7.05%E -3.81%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-15 22:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -2.97%E -1.53%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -4.54%E -2.39%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-15 22:19 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -2.97%E -1.53%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -4.54%E -2.39%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-15 22:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -3.97%E -2.06%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -3.03%E -1.57%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-15 22:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -3.97%E -2.06%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -4.04%E -2.11%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-15 22:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.47%E -2.33%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.54%E -2.95%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 22:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.47%E -2.33%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.54%E -2.95%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 22:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.47%E -2.33%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.54%E -2.95%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 22:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.96%E -2.60%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.04%E -2.11%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 22:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.96%E -2.60%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.04%E -2.11%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 23:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.96%E -2.60%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.04%E -2.11%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 15:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.96%E -2.60%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.04%E -2.11%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 22:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -4.96%E -2.60%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -6.05%E -3.23%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 22:34 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.96%E -2.60%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.06%E -4.40%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-15 22:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.46%E -2.87%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.54%E -2.39%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 14:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.46%E -2.87%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.54%E -2.39%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.46%E -2.87%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.54%E -2.39%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 15:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.46%E -2.87%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.54%E -2.39%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 15:02 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.46%E -2.87%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.54%E -2.39%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 22:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.46%E -2.87%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.54%E -2.39%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 22:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.46%E -2.87%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.54%E -2.39%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 23:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -5.46%E -2.87%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -6.05%E -3.23%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 19:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -5.96%E -3.15%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -5.04%E -2.67%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -5.96%E -3.15%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -5.04%E -2.67%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 15:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -5.96%E -3.15%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -5.04%E -2.67%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 15:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -5.96%E -3.15%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -5.04%E -2.67%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 15:04 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -5.96%E -3.15%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -5.04%E -2.67%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 15:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.87%EV -5.96%E -3.15%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.13%EV -5.54%E -2.95%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 22:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.95%E -3.72%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.03%E -1.04%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 22:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -6.95%E -3.72%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -2.53%E -1.30%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-15 22:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -7.95%E -4.30%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -2.03%E -1.04%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 23:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -10.44%E -5.80%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -9.56%E -5.31%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-15 15:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.07I 48.31%NM 48.25% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.75% | 0.1% | 2026-08-15 22:59 |
| Novig◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25% | 0.5% | 2026-08-15 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25% | 0.5% | 2026-08-15 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25% | 0.5% | 2026-08-15 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25% | 0.5% | 2026-08-15 23:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.62% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38% | 0.8% | 2026-08-15 23:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 1.0% | 2026-08-15 23:04 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.26% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.74% | 2.6% | 2026-08-15 23:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.77% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.40% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83% | 9.0% | 2026-08-14 22:04 |