The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Vicente Luque v Tresean Gore

2026-08-16 02:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vicente Luque (Local)

Prediction 44.96%2.22fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.498%
Kelly -0.913%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%44.98%44.74%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.122.112.2050.00%47.19%47.39%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tresean Gore (Visit)

Prediction 55.04%1.82fair odd
EV -0.922%
Edge -0.512%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%55.02%55.26%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.711.701.8059.88%58.34%58.82%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Vicente Luque (Local): 44.96%; Tresean Gore (Visit): 55.04%. For Tresean Gore (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.82. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.80, with an expected value of -0.922%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -1.10%E -0.498%K -0.913%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -5.88%E -3.44%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-04 22:10
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.10%E -0.498%K -0.913%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.08%E -4.84%K -12.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 22:14
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -3.34%E -1.56%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -7.53%E -4.48%K -11.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 22:15
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.34%E -1.56%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.08%E -4.84%K -12.06%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-04 22:24
Unibet (UK)2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -4.69%E -2.21%K -4.19%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -8.08%E -4.84%K -12.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 22:15
DraftKings2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -2.57%E -1.45%K -3.34%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-04 21:14
NordicBet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.43%E -3.78%K -9.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-04 20:29
Betsson2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.59%E -2.66%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.43%E -3.78%K -9.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-04 20:29
Pinnacle2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -6.94%E -3.35%K -6.49%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -0.922%E -0.512%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-04 16:05
Caesars2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -10.09%E -5.04%K -10.09%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -2.57%E -1.45%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-04 22:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig2.04I 49.02%NM 44.57%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.43%10.0%2026-08-04 22:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet2.07I 48.31%NM 44.93%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.25%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.82%7.5%2026-08-04 22:25