The School of Odds

Valter Walker v Thomas Petersen

2026-07-25 09:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Valter Walker (Local)

Prediction 70.73%1.41fair odd
EV +0.433%
Edge +0.305%
Kelly +1.03%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.23%70.73%70.73%73.22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.281.331.281.4278%75%78%70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Thomas Petersen (Visit)

Prediction 29.27%3.42fair odd
EV +2.45%
Edge +0.701%
Kelly +0.982%
Growth +0.024%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.78%29.27%29.27%31.77%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.053.353.503.5033%30%29%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
NordicBet1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -9.47%E -7.40%K -33.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV +2.45%E +0.701%K +0.982%G +0.024%6.7%2026-07-15 19:29
Betsson1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -9.47%E -7.40%K -33.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV +2.45%E +0.701%K +0.982%G +0.024%6.7%2026-07-15 19:29
BetOnline.ag1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV +0.433%E +0.305%K +1.03%G +0.004%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -10.72%E -3.51%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-16 00:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket1.43I 69.93%NM 64.78%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.22%8.0%2026-07-16 01:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.41I 70.92%NM 66.38%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.79%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.84%6.8%2026-07-16 00:50
Arbitrage (2 combinations) +1.02%BetOnline.ag 1.42 (71.1%) / NordicBet 3.50 (28.9%)Show all 2 combinations
Valter Walker (Local)Thomas Petersen (Visit)Margin
BetOnline.ag 1.42 (71.1%)NordicBet 3.50 (28.9%)+1.02%
BetOnline.ag 1.42 (71.1%)Betsson 3.50 (28.9%)+1.02%