Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Valentina Shevchenko v Natalia Silva

2026-10-04 01:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

59%

41%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Valentina Shevchenko (Local)

Prediction 58.90%1.70fair odd

EV -2.81%

Edge -1.70%

Kelly -4.32%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.51%59.46%58.90%61.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.501.561.561.6566.67%63.94%64.10%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Natalia Silva (Visit)

Prediction 41.10%2.43fair odd

EV -1.37%

Edge -0.569%

Kelly -0.976%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.46%40.54%41.10%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.252.332.352.4044.44%42.84%42.55%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Valentina Shevchenko (Local): 58.90%; Natalia Silva (Visit): 41.10%. For Natalia Silva (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.43. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.40, with an expected value of -1.37%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.81%E -1.70%K -4.32%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.42%E -1.46%K -2.53%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-08-24 12:23
Caesars🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.51%EV -5.17%E -3.21%K -8.47%G +0.000%	2.27I 44.05%NM 41.49%EV -6.71%E -2.96%K -5.28%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-20 23:11
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -8.11%E -5.20%K -14.49%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-08-24 12:28
NordicBet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -11.65%E -7.76%K -23.29%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -1.37%E -0.569%K -0.976%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-09-01 12:05
Betsson🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -11.65%E -7.76%K -23.29%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -1.37%E -0.569%K -0.976%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-09-01 12:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.78%	2.32I 43.10%NM 40.38%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.84%	6.7%	2026-08-31 12:55