Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Valentin Moldavsky v Bruno Cappelozza

2026-08-08 02:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

71%

29%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Valentin Moldavsky (Local)

Prediction 70.82%1.41fair odd

EV -3.69%

Edge -2.71%

Kelly -10.25%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

70.82%70.82%70.82%70.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.361.361.361.3673.53%73.53%73.53%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bruno Cappelozza (Visit)

Prediction 29.18%3.43fair odd

EV -3.69%

Edge -1.12%

Kelly -1.60%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.18%29.18%29.18%29.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.303.303.303.3030.30%30.30%30.30%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Valentin Moldavsky (Local): 70.82%; Bruno Cappelozza (Visit): 29.18%. For Valentin Moldavsky (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.41. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.36, with an expected value of -3.69%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -3.69%E -2.71%K -10.25%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -3.69%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-08-05 06:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.