The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Valanti Atsas v Nate Jennerman

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Valanti Atsas (Local)

Prediction 51.49%1.94fair odd
EV +0.404%
Edge +0.207%
Kelly +0.426%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.95%51.49%51.49%54.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.751.731.9557.80%57.02%57.80%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nate Jennerman (Visit)

Prediction 48.51%2.06fair odd
EV +1.87%
Edge +0.892%
Kelly +1.70%
Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.17%48.51%48.51%51.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.032.022.1053.48%49.35%49.50%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Valanti Atsas (Local): 51.49%; Nate Jennerman (Visit): 48.51%. For Nate Jennerman (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.06. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.87%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -10.92%E -6.31%K -14.96%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV +1.87%E +0.892%K +1.70%G +0.032%5.4%2026-04-10 18:35
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -10.92%E -6.31%K -14.96%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV +1.87%E +0.892%K +1.70%G +0.032%5.4%2026-04-10 18:35
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV -8.86%E -5.01%K -11.51%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV +0.902%E +0.434%K +0.835%G +0.008%4.6%2026-04-11 16:40
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -10.92%E -6.31%K -14.96%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%EV -2.01%E -0.994%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-10 08:25
LeoVegas🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -10.92%E -6.31%K -14.96%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%EV -2.01%E -0.994%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-10 08:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -10.92%E -6.31%K -14.96%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%EV -2.01%E -0.994%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-10 08:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -10.92%E -6.31%K -14.96%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%EV -2.01%E -0.994%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-10 08:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -10.92%E -6.31%K -14.96%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%EV -2.01%E -0.994%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-10 08:25
Grosvenor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -10.92%E -6.31%K -14.96%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%EV -2.01%E -0.994%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-10 08:25
Bally Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -10.92%E -6.31%K -14.96%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%EV -2.01%E -0.994%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-10 08:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV +0.404%E +0.207%K +0.426%G +0.002%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -9.29%E -4.97%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-11 21:53
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.