The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Usman Nurmagomedov v Archie Colgan

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 00:30 UTC

Final: Usman Nurmagomedov 1–0 Archie Colgan

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Usman Nurmagomedov (Local)

Prediction 84.44%1.18fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -12.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.04%84.44%84.47%86.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.131.141.1692.59%88.27%87.72%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Archie Colgan (Visit)

Prediction 15.56%6.42fair odd
EV +8.95%
Edge +1.28%
Kelly +1.49%
Growth +0.134%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.69%15.56%15.53%17.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.105.775.307.0019.61%17.33%18.87%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Usman Nurmagomedov (Local): 84.44%; Archie Colgan (Visit): 15.56%. For Archie Colgan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.42. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.95%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -6.28%E -5.65%K -57.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV +8.95%E +1.28%K +1.49%G +0.134%4.4%2026-08-01 00:29
FanDuel🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.47%EV -3.74%E -3.28%K -26.74%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.53%EV -3.50%E -0.564%K -0.673%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-31 21:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.43%E -4.85%K -45.27%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -3.50%E -0.564%K -0.673%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-31 20:14
Unibet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -2.05%E -1.77%K -12.84%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -17.51%E -3.30%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 00:14
Grosvenor🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -2.05%E -1.77%K -12.84%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -17.51%E -3.30%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 00:15
Bally Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -2.05%E -1.77%K -12.84%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -17.51%E -3.30%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 00:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.52%EV -8.81%E -8.16%K -110.12%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.48%EV -20.62%E -4.04%K -5.03%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-01 00:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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