The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Urijah Faber v Henry Cejudo

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Urijah Faber (Local)

Prediction 8.71%11.48fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -0.377%
Kelly -0.415%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.71%8.71%8.71%8.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0011.0011.0011.009.09%9.09%9.09%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Henry Cejudo (Visit)

Prediction 91.29%1.10fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -3.95%
Kelly -82.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
91.29%91.29%91.29%91.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.051.051.0595.24%95.24%95.24%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Urijah Faber (Local): 8.71%; Henry Cejudo (Visit): 91.29%. For Urijah Faber (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.48. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 11.00, with an expected value of -4.15%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -4.15%E -0.377%K -0.415%G +0.000%1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.15%E -3.95%K -82.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-28 23:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.