The School of Odds

Umar Nurmagomedov v Song Yadong

2026-08-29 20:00 UTC — MMA

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Umar Nurmagomedov (Local)

Prediction 76.74%1.30fair odd
EV -1.00%
Edge -0.776%
Kelly -3.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.62%76.64%76.19%79.93%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.181.221.221.2985%82%82%78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Song Yadong (Visit)

Prediction 23.26%4.30fair odd
EV +9.31%
Edge +1.98%
Kelly +2.52%
Growth +0.234%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.07%23.36%23.81%26.38%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.604.174.044.7028%24%25%21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
SportsBet1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -9.44%E -8.00%K -52.46%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV +9.31%E +1.98%K +2.52%G +0.234%6.0%2026-07-21 13:00
DraftKings1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -7.14%E -5.90%K -34.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV +6.98%E +1.52%K +1.94%G +0.135%4.4%2026-07-08 23:14
Paddy Power1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -7.91%E -6.59%K -39.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +4.66%E +1.03%K +1.33%G +0.062%5.6%2026-07-21 12:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -7.91%E -6.59%K -39.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +4.66%E +1.03%K +1.33%G +0.062%5.6%2026-07-25 16:20
FanDuel1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -8.68%E -7.29%K -45.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV +4.66%E +1.03%K +1.33%G +0.062%6.3%2026-07-21 13:00
BetUS1.25I 80.00%NM 76.59%EV -4.07%E -3.26%K -16.28%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.41%EV -4.88%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-07 19:39
BetOnline.ag1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.07%E -3.26%K -16.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.97%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-07 19:40
Caesars1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.37%E -5.22%K -28.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.97%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-23 20:31
Betclic (FR)1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.37%E -5.22%K -28.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -9.30%E -2.38%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 17:23
NordicBet1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -4.84%E -3.90%K -20.16%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -10.46%E -2.72%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-04 17:20
Betsson1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -4.84%E -3.90%K -20.16%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -10.46%E -2.72%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-04 17:19
Betway1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -1.00%E -0.776%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -16.28%E -4.52%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 07:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.23I 81.30%NM 76.51%4.56I 21.93%NM 20.64%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.85%6.3%2026-07-25 10:45
Arbitrage (5 combinations) +1.22%Betway 1.29 (78.5%) / SportsBet 4.70 (21.5%)Show all 5 combinations
Umar Nurmagomedov (Local)Song Yadong (Visit)Margin
Betway 1.29 (78.5%)SportsBet 4.70 (21.5%)+1.22%
Betway 1.29 (78.1%)DraftKings 4.60 (21.9%)+0.747%
Betway 1.29 (77.7%)Paddy Power 4.50 (22.3%)+0.259%
Betway 1.29 (77.7%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 4.50 (22.3%)+0.259%
Betway 1.29 (77.7%)FanDuel 4.50 (22.3%)+0.259%