The School of OddsUmar Nurmagomedov v Song Yadong
Head to Head
1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Option 1: Umar Nurmagomedov (Local)
Odds
1.2381.30%Min
1.2580.00%Mean
1.2480.65%Median
1.2977.52%Max
Consensus probabilities
74.90%1.335Min
75.64%1.322Max
75.28%1.328Mean
75.30%1.328Median
75.28%1.328IQM
75.21%1.330Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.29 under the IQM model: 75.28%
EV -2.89%Edge -2.24%Kelly -9.96%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Song Yadong (Visit)
Odds
3.7526.67%Min
3.8226.14%Mean
3.8525.97%Median
3.8525.97%Max
Consensus probabilities
24.36%4.105Min
25.10%3.984Max
24.72%4.045Mean
24.70%4.049Median
24.72%4.045IQM
24.79%4.033Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.85 under the IQM model: 24.72%
EV -4.83%Edge -1.25%Kelly -1.70%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Umar Nurmagomedov (Local) ▼ | Song Yadong (Visit) | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag | 1.29I 77.52% NM 74.90%EV -2.89% E -2.24% K -9.96% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 25.10%EV -4.83% E -1.25% K -1.70% G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-07-03 19:44 |
| NordicBet | 1.24I 80.65% NM 75.64%EV -6.65% E -5.36% K -27.72% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 24.36%EV -4.83% E -1.25% K -1.70% G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-04 17:20 |
| Betsson | 1.24I 80.65% NM 75.64%EV -6.65% E -5.36% K -27.72% G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97% NM 24.36%EV -4.83% E -1.25% K -1.70% G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-04 17:19 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.23I 81.30% NM 75.30%EV -7.40% E -6.02% K -32.19% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.70%EV -7.30% E -1.95% K -2.66% G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-04 12:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.24I 80.65% | 4.16I 24.04% | 70.00I 1.43% | 6.1% | 2026-07-03 05:39 |