Tyson Pedro v Rafael Alves

2026-07-25 22:00 UTC — MMA

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Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

55%

45%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Tyson Pedro (Local)

Prediction 55.27%1.81fair odd

EV -3.83%

Edge -2.20%

Kelly -5.18%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.27%55.27%55.27%55.84%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.701.721.721.7459%58%58%57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Rafael Alves (Visit)

Prediction 44.73%2.24fair odd

EV -3.83%

Edge -1.78%

Kelly -3.33%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

44.16%44.73%44.73%44.73%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.152.152.152.1547%47%47%47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.83%E -2.20%K -5.18%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.83%E -1.78%K -3.33%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-07-23 00:24
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.04%E -3.55%K -8.63%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.83%E -1.78%K -3.33%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-23 00:54

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.