The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Tyson Pedro v Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov

Kickoff: 2026-04-16 23:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tyson Pedro (Local)

Prediction 18.34%5.45fair odd
EV +6.38%
Edge +1.10%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.085%

assuming max odds 5.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.31%18.34%18.22%22.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.734.205.8023.81%21.13%23.81%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov (Visit)

Prediction 81.66%1.22fair odd
EV -1.19%
Edge -0.986%
Kelly -5.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.63%81.66%81.78%83.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.191.211.2188.50%84.15%82.64%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tyson Pedro (Local): 18.34%; Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov (Visit): 81.66%. For Tyson Pedro (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.45. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Neds🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV +6.38%E +1.10%K +1.33%G +0.085%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -7.73%E -6.84%K -59.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-16 22:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV +6.38%E +1.10%K +1.33%G +0.085%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -7.73%E -6.84%K -59.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-16 22:49
BetMGM🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV +5.46%E +0.950%K +1.15%G +0.063%1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -6.09%E -5.30%K -40.62%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-16 22:49
BetOnline.ag🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -3.71%E -0.706%K -0.872%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.46%E -3.81%K -26.23%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-16 22:54
FanDuel🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 20.13%EV -11.96%E -2.49%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 79.87%EV -1.19%E -0.986%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-16 22:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -22.97%E -5.47%K -7.18%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -1.19%E -0.986%K -5.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-16 14:34
Unibet (NL)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -22.97%E -5.47%K -7.18%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -1.19%E -0.986%K -5.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-16 14:35
Unibet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -22.97%E -5.47%K -7.18%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -1.19%E -0.986%K -5.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-16 14:35
Unibet (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -22.97%E -5.47%K -7.18%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -1.19%E -0.986%K -5.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-16 14:35
LeoVegas🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -22.97%E -5.47%K -7.18%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -1.19%E -0.986%K -5.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-16 14:35
Grosvenor🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -22.97%E -5.47%K -7.18%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -1.19%E -0.986%K -5.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-16 14:35
Bally Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -22.97%E -5.47%K -7.18%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -1.19%E -0.986%K -5.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-16 14:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.