Language:English
Ty Miller v Billy Goff
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ty Miller (Local)
Prediction 78.26%1.28fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -8.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.11%78.38%78.02%80.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.221.221.2584.75%82.02%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Billy Goff (Visit)
Prediction 21.74%4.60fair odd
EV +11.08%
Edge +2.17%
Kelly +2.70%
Growth +0.299%
assuming max odds 5.11
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.02%21.62%21.98%23.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.314.205.1126.32%23.19%23.81%19.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ty Miller (Local): 78.26%; Billy Goff (Visit): 21.74%. For Billy Goff (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.60. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.11, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.08%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.98%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.43%G +0.000% | 5.11I 19.57%NM 19.02%EV +11.08%E +2.17%K +2.70%G +0.299% | 2.9% | 2026-08-09 00:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43%EV -7.65%E -6.48%K -42.51%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV +5.43%E +1.12%K +1.41%G +0.077% | 5.4% | 2026-08-09 00:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.43%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV +4.35%E +0.905%K +1.14%G +0.050% | 4.2% | 2026-08-09 00:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.43%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV +4.35%E +0.905%K +1.14%G +0.050% | 4.2% | 2026-08-08 23:31 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.43%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV +3.26%E +0.686%K +0.869%G +0.028% | 4.4% | 2026-08-09 00:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.66%EV -5.30%E -4.38%K -25.26%G +0.000% | 4.74I 21.10%NM 20.34%EV +3.04%E +0.642%K +0.813%G +0.025% | 3.7% | 2026-08-09 00:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -5.30%E -4.38%K -25.26%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV +2.17%E +0.462%K +0.587%G +0.013% | 3.9% | 2026-08-08 23:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.43%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -0.002%E -0.000%K -0.001%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 00:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.43%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -0.002%E -0.000%K -0.001%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 23:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.85%EV -5.30%E -4.38%K -25.26%G +0.000% | 4.51I 22.17%NM 21.15%EV -1.96%E -0.434%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-09 00:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.52%E -3.71%K -20.55%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -2.18%E -0.483%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-08 16:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.62%EV -5.30%E -4.38%K -25.26%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.38%EV -3.26%E -0.733%K -0.946%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 16:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.52%E -3.71%K -20.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -4.35%E -0.989%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-08 23:24 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.30%E -4.38%K -25.26%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -4.35%E -0.989%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 23:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -4.52%E -3.71%K -20.55%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -5.87%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 00:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -3.74%E -3.04%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -6.52%E -1.52%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-08 10:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -3.74%E -3.04%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -6.52%E -1.52%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-08 10:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -3.74%E -3.04%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -7.61%E -1.79%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-08 22:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.52%E -3.71%K -20.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -8.70%E -2.07%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-08 22:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.85%EV -2.17%E -1.74%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.15%EV -9.78%E -2.36%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-08 15:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.57%EV -6.09%E -5.07%K -30.43%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV -9.78%E -2.36%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-09 00:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -2.96%E -2.38%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -10.87%E -2.65%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-06 15:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -2.96%E -2.38%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -10.87%E -2.65%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-06 15:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -2.96%E -2.38%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -10.87%E -2.65%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-06 15:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -2.96%E -2.38%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -10.87%E -2.65%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-06 15:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -2.96%E -2.38%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -10.87%E -2.65%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-06 15:29 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -2.96%E -2.38%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -10.87%E -2.65%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-06 15:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -2.96%E -2.38%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -10.87%E -2.65%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-06 15:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -2.96%E -2.38%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -10.87%E -2.65%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-06 15:32 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -2.96%E -2.38%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -10.87%E -2.65%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-06 15:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -2.96%E -2.38%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -13.05%E -3.26%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-06 15:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.52%E -3.71%K -20.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -13.05%E -3.26%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 16:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.52%E -3.71%K -20.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -13.05%E -3.26%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-08 16:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.78%EV -5.30%E -4.38%K -25.26%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -13.05%E -3.26%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-07 13:01 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.07%EV -6.87%E -5.77%K -36.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%EV -13.05%E -3.26%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-08 23:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -2.96%E -2.38%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -14.13%E -3.58%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-06 15:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.31%EV -7.65%E -6.48%K -42.51%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -17.39%E -4.58%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-08 21:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 81.45% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.55% | -0.2% | 2026-08-09 00:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 0.6% | 2026-08-09 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 0.6% | 2026-08-09 00:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 0.6% | 2026-08-09 00:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 0.6% | 2026-08-09 00:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 1.3% | 2026-08-09 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 1.3% | 2026-08-09 00:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.70% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.30% | 3.7% | 2026-08-09 00:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.37% | 4.51I 22.17%NM 20.76% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 6.8% | 2026-08-08 23:00 |
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