The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Tuco Tokkos v Ivan Erslan

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 23:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tuco Tokkos (Local)

Prediction 40.10%2.49fair odd
EV -0.558%
Edge -0.225%
Kelly -0.377%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.75%40.19%40.15%41.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.372.352.4843.48%42.23%42.55%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ivan Erslan (Visit)

Prediction 59.90%1.67fair odd
EV +0.037%
Edge +0.022%
Kelly +0.056%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.23%59.81%59.85%61.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.591.601.6765.36%62.72%62.50%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tuco Tokkos (Local): 40.10%; Ivan Erslan (Visit): 59.90%. For Ivan Erslan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.669. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.670, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.037%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.75%EV -6.57%E -2.82%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.25%EV +0.037%E +0.022%K +0.056%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-16 23:35
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -7.78%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -1.16%E -0.704%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-16 23:35
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -2.96%E -1.83%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-16 20:45
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -2.96%E -1.83%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-16 20:45
BetUS🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -4.57%E -1.92%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -3.56%E -2.21%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-16 23:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.56%E -2.21%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-16 15:00
FanDuel🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV -2.96%E -1.22%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -4.16%E -2.60%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-15 23:50
Bovada🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV -2.96%E -1.22%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -4.16%E -2.60%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-16 19:33
BetAnything🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -5.37%E -2.28%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -4.16%E -2.60%K -6.93%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-16 23:35
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.16%E -2.60%K -6.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 15:00
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.16%E -2.60%K -6.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 15:00
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.16%E -2.60%K -6.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 15:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.16%E -2.60%K -6.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 15:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.16%E -2.60%K -6.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 15:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.16%E -2.60%K -6.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 15:00
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.16%E -2.60%K -6.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 15:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.16%E -2.60%K -6.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 15:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.16%E -2.60%K -6.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 15:00
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.16%E -2.60%K -6.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 15:00
betPARX🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.16%E -2.60%K -6.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 14:59
Bally Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.16%E -2.60%K -6.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 15:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.16%E -2.60%K -6.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 15:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.16%E -2.60%K -6.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-16 15:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.16%E -2.60%K -6.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-15 23:25
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.16%E -2.60%K -6.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-15 23:25
TAB🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.16%E -2.60%K -6.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-15 22:18
BetOnline.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -1.76%E -0.719%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.75%E -2.99%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-16 19:35
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.35%E -3.39%K -9.23%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-15 10:54
Coolbet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -0.558%E -0.225%K -0.377%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -5.95%E -3.79%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-13 02:15
Caesars🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -1.76%E -0.719%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.95%E -3.79%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-16 22:12
SportsBet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -3.37%E -1.40%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -5.95%E -3.79%K -10.44%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 20:15
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.77%E -1.57%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.95%E -3.79%K -10.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 11:55
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.57%E -1.92%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.95%E -3.79%K -10.44%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-16 22:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.57%E -1.92%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.95%E -3.79%K -10.44%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-16 22:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.77%E -2.46%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.95%E -3.79%K -10.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 19:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.78%E -3.38%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.95%E -3.79%K -10.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 23:15
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -1.76%E -0.719%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -7.15%E -4.61%K -13.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 23:35
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -4.57%E -1.92%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -8.35%E -5.46%K -15.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 20:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.42I 41.32%NM 41.26%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.74%0.1%2026-05-16 23:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.92%1.69I 59.17%NM 59.08%0.2%2026-05-16 23:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.92%1.69I 59.17%NM 59.08%0.2%2026-05-16 23:35
Matchbook◎2.42I 41.32%NM 41.12%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.88%0.5%2026-05-16 23:35
Novig◎2.53I 39.53%NM 39.33%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.67%0.5%2026-05-16 23:35
ProphetX◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56%0.5%2026-05-16 23:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.49%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.51%1.2%2026-05-16 23:35
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%2.0%2026-05-16 23:30