The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Trukon Carson v Trey Waters

Kickoff: 2026-08-07 22:40 UTC

Final: Trukon Carson 0–1 Trey Waters

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Trukon Carson (Local)

Prediction 28.29%3.54fair odd
EV -1.00%
Edge -0.286%
Kelly -0.401%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.37%28.29%28.29%32.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.163.103.5034.48%31.66%32.26%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Trey Waters (Visit)

Prediction 71.71%1.39fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -4.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.92%71.71%71.71%72.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.351.361.3776.92%74.35%73.53%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Trukon Carson (Local): 28.29%; Trey Waters (Visit): 71.71%. For Trukon Carson (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -1.00%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -1.00%E -0.286%K -0.401%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -5.34%E -4.04%K -16.68%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-07 21:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -2.42%E -0.700%K -0.986%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.77%E -5.21%K -22.57%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-07 22:10
BetOnline.ag🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -6.66%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -2.47%E -1.81%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-07 22:35
Unibet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -17.97%E -6.20%K -9.46%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92%EV -1.75%E -1.28%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-07 18:25
Grosvenor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -17.97%E -6.20%K -9.46%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -2.47%E -1.81%K -6.86%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-07 18:24
Bally Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -17.97%E -6.20%K -9.46%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -2.47%E -1.81%K -6.86%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-07 18:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.