The School of Odds
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Trukon Carson v Trey Waters

2026-08-08 02:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Trukon Carson (Local)

Prediction 29.64%3.37fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.20%29.64%29.64%29.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.203.203.2631.75%31.23%31.25%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Trey Waters (Visit)

Prediction 70.36%1.42fair odd
EV -4.31%
Edge -3.17%
Kelly -11.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.16%70.36%70.36%70.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.331.321.3675.76%75.08%75.76%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Trukon Carson (Local): 29.64%; Trey Waters (Visit): 70.36%. For Trukon Carson (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.37. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.26, with an expected value of -3.37%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯3.26I 30.67%NM 29.44%EV -3.37%E -1.03%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.56%EV -4.31%E -3.17%K -11.98%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-05 15:59
Unibet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -5.15%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -7.13%E -5.40%K -22.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-05 16:00
Grosvenor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -5.15%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -7.13%E -5.40%K -22.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-05 16:00
Bally Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -5.15%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -7.13%E -5.40%K -22.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-05 16:00
FanDuel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -6.63%E -2.11%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -5.72%E -4.27%K -16.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.