Language:English
Trey Ogden v Thomas Gantt
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Trey Ogden (Local)
Prediction 32.11%3.11fair odd
EV +4.37%
Edge +1.35%
Kelly +1.94%
Growth +0.085%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.88%33.05%32.16%39.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.932.953.2540.82%34.12%33.90%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Thomas Gantt (Visit)
Prediction 67.89%1.47fair odd
EV +7.26%
Edge +4.59%
Kelly +12.51%
Growth +0.908%
assuming max odds 1.58
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.95%66.95%67.84%71.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.411.401.5875.76%71.03%71.43%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Trey Ogden (Local): 32.11%; Thomas Gantt (Visit): 67.89%. For Thomas Gantt (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.47. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.58, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.26%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.01%EV -20.68%E -8.37%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.99%EV +7.26%E +4.59%K +12.51%G +0.908% | 3.8% | 2026-05-12 15:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -21.32%E -8.70%K -14.70%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV +6.58%E +4.19%K +11.54%G +0.760% | 4.5% | 2026-05-12 15:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -2.92%E -2.04%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-12 02:42 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -11.68%E -4.25%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -2.92%E -2.04%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-11 02:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -2.05%E -0.672%K -1.000%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -3.60%E -2.54%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-11 03:54 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -3.66%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.60%E -2.54%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-11 21:07 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -4.30%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -3.60%E -2.54%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-11 03:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.87%E -2.37%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.60%E -2.54%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-11 03:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -10.08%E -3.60%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.60%E -2.54%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-10 16:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.66%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 23:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.66%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 23:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.66%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 23:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.66%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-12 10:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -4.30%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-10 16:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 16:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 09:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:24 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 10:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.87%E -2.37%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-10 12:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.87%E -2.37%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-11 10:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.51%E -2.61%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-10 16:46 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.51%E -2.61%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-10 16:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -11.68%E -4.25%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.96%E -3.54%K -12.40%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-09 13:32 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.66%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-10 16:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -6.32%E -4.58%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-09 16:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV +4.37%E +1.35%K +1.94%G +0.085% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -10.39%E -7.87%K -32.47%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-12 14:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV +4.37%E +1.35%K +1.94%G +0.085% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -10.39%E -7.87%K -32.47%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-12 14:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 0.2% | 2026-05-11 21:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30% | 0.8% | 2026-05-12 07:59 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.03% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.97% | 1.9% | 2026-05-12 14:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 40.58% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.42% | 10.0% | 2026-05-12 15:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 57.79% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 42.21% | 68.0% | 2026-05-12 12:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 57.79% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 42.21% | 68.0% | 2026-05-12 12:09 |
| Novig◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 59.35% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 40.65% | 68.5% | 2026-05-12 17:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 57.61% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 42.39% | 68.5% | 2026-05-12 10:44 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.36% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85% | 33.00I 3.03%NM 2.79% | 8.5% | 2026-05-11 21:09 |