Toni Estorer v Tomas Melis

2026-07-18 17:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

56%

44%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Toni Estorer (Local)

Prediction 55.70%1.80fair odd

EV -6.98%

Edge -4.18%

Kelly -10.41%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.70%55.70%55.70%55.70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.671.671.671.6760%60%60%60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Tomas Melis (Visit)

Prediction 44.30%2.26fair odd

EV -6.98%

Edge -3.32%

Kelly -6.34%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

44.30%44.30%44.30%44.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.102.102.102.1048%48%48%48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.98%E -4.18%K -10.41%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-14 22:14

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.