Language:English
Tommy McMillen v Marwan Rahiki
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tommy McMillen (Local)
Prediction 59.68%1.68fair odd
EV -1.53%
Edge -0.929%
Kelly -2.36%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.20%59.77%59.49%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.581.581.6570.92%63.45%63.49%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Marwan Rahiki (Visit)
Prediction 40.32%2.48fair odd
EV +0.807%
Edge +0.323%
Kelly +0.538%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 2.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%40.23%40.51%41.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.402.382.5045.45%41.68%42.02%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tommy McMillen (Local): 59.68%; Marwan Rahiki (Visit): 40.32%. For Marwan Rahiki (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.48. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.807%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -6.90%E -4.43%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV +0.807%E +0.323%K +0.538%G +0.004% | 4.1% | 2026-09-12 21:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -8.10%E -5.26%K -14.99%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV +0.807%E +0.323%K +0.538%G +0.004% | 4.9% | 2026-09-12 21:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -8.10%E -5.26%K -14.99%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV +0.807%E +0.323%K +0.538%G +0.004% | 4.9% | 2026-09-12 21:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -8.10%E -5.26%K -14.99%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV +0.807%E +0.323%K +0.538%G +0.004% | 4.9% | 2026-09-12 21:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -8.10%E -5.26%K -14.99%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV +0.807%E +0.323%K +0.538%G +0.004% | 4.9% | 2026-09-12 21:56 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -8.10%E -5.26%K -14.99%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV +0.807%E +0.323%K +0.538%G +0.004% | 4.9% | 2026-09-12 21:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -8.10%E -5.26%K -14.99%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV +0.807%E +0.323%K +0.538%G +0.004% | 4.9% | 2026-09-12 21:56 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -8.10%E -5.26%K -14.99%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV +0.807%E +0.323%K +0.538%G +0.004% | 4.9% | 2026-09-12 21:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -8.10%E -5.26%K -14.99%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV +0.807%E +0.323%K +0.538%G +0.004% | 4.9% | 2026-09-12 21:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -8.10%E -5.26%K -14.99%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV +0.807%E +0.323%K +0.538%G +0.004% | 4.9% | 2026-09-12 21:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.69%E -5.68%K -16.40%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +0.807%E +0.323%K +0.538%G +0.004% | 5.4% | 2026-09-12 22:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%EV -6.31%E -4.02%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96%EV -0.806%E -0.328%K -0.552%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-12 22:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -7.50%E -4.84%K -13.64%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%EV -0.806%E -0.328%K -0.552%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-12 22:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -5.11%E -3.22%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -1.21%E -0.494%K -0.834%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-12 22:51 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.25%EV -3.92%E -2.43%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75%EV -1.61%E -0.661%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-12 22:46 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -4.52%E -2.82%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV -2.42%E -1.000%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.31%E -4.02%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.23%E -1.34%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-07 13:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.75%EV -3.92%E -2.43%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.25%EV -3.63%E -1.52%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-12 22:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -3.92%E -2.43%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -4.03%E -1.69%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-12 22:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.31%E -4.02%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.03%E -1.69%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-12 22:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.31%E -4.02%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.03%E -1.69%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-12 22:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.31%E -4.02%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.03%E -1.69%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-12 22:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.70%EV -4.52%E -2.82%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -4.44%E -1.87%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.32%E -2.05%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -4.84%E -2.05%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-12 22:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.32%E -2.05%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.24%E -2.23%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.92%E -2.43%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.24%E -2.23%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-12 17:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.52%E -2.82%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.24%E -2.23%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 17:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.52%E -2.82%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.24%E -2.23%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 22:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.52%E -2.82%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.24%E -2.23%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 22:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.52%E -2.82%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.24%E -2.23%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.71%E -3.61%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.24%E -2.23%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-12 22:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -3.92%E -2.43%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.45%E -2.78%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-12 20:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -1.53%E -0.929%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -7.26%E -3.16%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-12 17:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -1.53%E -0.929%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -7.26%E -3.16%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-12 17:21 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -2.73%E -1.67%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -7.26%E -3.16%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-12 22:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%EV -6.90%E -4.43%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -8.06%E -3.54%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-12 17:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 61.48%EV -15.86%E -11.24%K -38.67%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.52%EV -9.27%E -4.12%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-09-12 21:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.20%EV -5.71%E -3.61%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -11.29%E -5.13%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-12 14:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 60.29% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.71% | -0.1% | 2026-09-12 22:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.61% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.39% | 0.2% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.61% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.39% | 0.2% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.61% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.39% | 0.2% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.2% | 2026-09-12 22:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.05% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.95% | 1.4% | 2026-09-12 22:51 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.32% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.68% | 2.9% | 2026-09-12 22:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.32% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.68% | 2.9% | 2026-09-12 22:44 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.18% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.95% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.88% | 6.6% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |