Language:English
Tommy McMillen v Manolo Zecchini
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tommy McMillen (Local)
Prediction 85.09%1.18fair odd
EV +10.62%
Edge +8.17%
Kelly +35.41%
Growth +3.76%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.77%83.26%85.36%89.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.131.121.3093.46%88.61%89.29%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Manolo Zecchini (Visit)
Prediction 14.91%6.71fair odd
EV +34.16%
Edge +3.80%
Kelly +4.27%
Growth +1.46%
assuming max odds 9.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.63%16.74%14.64%30.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.005.926.009.0033.33%16.89%16.67%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tommy McMillen (Local): 85.09%; Manolo Zecchini (Visit): 14.91%. For Manolo Zecchini (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.71. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +34.16%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV +10.62%E +8.17%K +35.41%G +3.76% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -55.28%E -18.43%K -27.64%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-05 00:58 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.62%EV +1.26%E +1.06%K +6.64%G +0.084% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.38%EV -41.87%E -10.73%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-05 00:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV +0.411%E +0.348%K +2.28%G +0.009% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -32.92%E -7.32%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-05 00:58 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -0.440%E -0.376%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -25.47%E -5.09%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-05 00:58 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -0.440%E -0.376%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -25.47%E -5.09%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-05 00:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -1.29%E -1.11%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -31.43%E -6.83%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-05 00:58 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -2.99%E -2.63%K -21.38%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -18.02%E -3.28%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-05 00:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -2.99%E -2.63%K -21.38%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -18.02%E -3.28%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-05 00:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -2.99%E -2.63%K -21.38%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -18.02%E -3.28%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-05 00:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -2.99%E -2.63%K -21.38%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -18.02%E -3.28%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-05 00:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -2.99%E -2.63%K -21.38%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -18.02%E -3.28%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-05 00:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -2.99%E -2.63%K -21.38%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -22.49%E -4.32%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-05 00:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.73%EV -2.99%E -2.63%K -21.38%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -23.98%E -4.70%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-05 00:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.73%EV -2.99%E -2.63%K -21.38%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -23.98%E -4.70%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-05 00:58 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.73%EV -2.99%E -2.63%K -21.38%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -23.98%E -4.70%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-05 00:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.05%EV -3.84%E -3.40%K -29.57%G +0.000% | 6.97I 14.35%NM 13.95%EV +3.90%E +0.559%K +0.653%G +0.025% | 2.8% | 2026-04-05 00:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV +0.617%E +0.091%K +0.107%G +0.001% | 4.1% | 2026-04-05 01:03 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -3.11%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-04 19:23 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -3.11%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-04 19:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -6.84%E -1.09%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-04 19:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -6.84%E -1.09%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-04 05:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-04 09:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-05 00:58 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -18.02%E -3.28%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-05 00:58 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -18.02%E -3.28%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-04 13:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -25.47%E -5.09%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-05 00:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV +4.34%E +0.621%K +0.724%G +0.031% | 4.4% | 2026-04-04 15:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +0.617%E +0.091%K +0.107%G +0.001% | 4.9% | 2026-04-04 11:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +0.617%E +0.091%K +0.107%G +0.001% | 4.9% | 2026-04-04 11:43 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV -0.128%E -0.019%K -0.022%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-04 05:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -3.11%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-04 20:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -3.11%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-05 01:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -3.11%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-05 00:56 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -6.84%E -1.09%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-04 06:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.97%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV +11.80%E +1.57%K +1.81%G +0.214% | 4.2% | 2026-04-04 05:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 81.36%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.97%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.64%EV -28.45%E -5.93%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-05 00:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.45%EV -7.25%E -6.65%K -80.53%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.55%EV -4.60%E -0.719%K -0.852%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-05 00:58 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -8.95%E -8.36%K -127.85%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +34.16%E +3.80%K +4.27%G +1.46% | 4.6% | 2026-04-04 18:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -8.95%E -8.36%K -127.85%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +19.25%E +2.41%K +2.75%G +0.529% | 6.0% | 2026-04-05 00:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -8.95%E -8.36%K -127.85%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV +4.34%E +0.621%K +0.724%G +0.031% | 7.7% | 2026-04-05 00:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 99.01% | 100.00I 1.00%NM 0.99% | 1.0% | 2026-04-05 01:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.65% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35% | 1.2% | 2026-04-05 00:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10% | 3.7% | 2026-04-05 01:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.65% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35% | 6.9% | 2026-04-05 01:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 93.46% | 14.29I 7.00%NM 6.54% | 7.0% | 2026-04-05 00:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 66.67% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 33.33% | 26.1% | 2026-04-05 01:00 |