Language:English
Tommy McMillen v Alberto Montes
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tommy McMillen (Local)
Prediction 64.03%1.56fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -3.84%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.25%64.16%63.91%66.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.481.501.5370.42%67.47%66.89%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alberto Montes (Visit)
Prediction 35.97%2.78fair odd
EV +2.52%
Edge +0.884%
Kelly +1.36%
Growth +0.034%
assuming max odds 2.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.26%35.84%36.09%37.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.482.652.612.8540.32%37.74%38.31%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -7.80%E -5.42%K -17.73%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV +2.52%E +0.884%K +1.36%G +0.034% | 4.5% | 2026-07-18 18:20 |
| Bet Right | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -9.08%E -6.39%K -21.62%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV +2.52%E +0.884%K +1.36%G +0.034% | 5.5% | 2026-07-19 00:10 |
| FanDuel | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -7.16%E -4.94%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV +2.16%E +0.761%K +1.17%G +0.025% | 4.2% | 2026-07-18 20:00 |
| SportsBet | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.20%EV -7.80%E -5.42%K -17.73%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80%EV +1.44%E +0.511%K +0.792%G +0.011% | 4.9% | 2026-07-18 20:00 |
| DraftKings | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -6.52%E -4.47%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV +0.721%E +0.258%K +0.401%G +0.003% | 4.2% | 2026-07-18 20:15 |
| Caesars | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -7.16%E -4.94%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV +0.721%E +0.258%K +0.401%G +0.003% | 4.7% | 2026-07-18 19:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -9.08%E -6.39%K -21.62%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV +0.721%E +0.258%K +0.401%G +0.003% | 6.1% | 2026-07-18 22:20 |
| Coolbet | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -5.88%E -4.00%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -1.08%E -0.392%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-18 19:50 |
| TAB | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.16%E -4.94%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -1.08%E -0.392%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-18 20:44 |
| Paddy Power | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.80%E -5.42%K -17.73%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -1.08%E -0.392%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-18 20:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.80%E -5.42%K -17.73%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -1.08%E -0.392%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-18 20:00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.39%EV -3.32%E -2.20%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 35.61%EV -1.80%E -0.658%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-07-19 00:10 |
| Bovada | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.69%EV -4.60%E -3.09%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 35.31%EV -1.80%E -0.658%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-18 20:09 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.96%E -2.64%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -2.88%E -1.07%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-19 00:10 |
| PlayUp | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.88%E -4.00%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.88%E -1.07%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-18 20:30 |
| BetAnything | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.16%E -4.94%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.88%E -1.07%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-18 23:00 |
| BetUS | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.94%EV -3.96%E -2.64%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.06%EV -4.31%E -1.62%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-19 00:10 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -6.52%E -4.47%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -4.67%E -1.76%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-18 19:05 |
| Betway | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.96%E -2.64%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.75%E -2.20%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-18 20:59 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.80%E -5.42%K -17.73%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.47%E -2.49%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-18 23:50 |
| Betsson | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -2.04%E -1.33%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -7.19%E -2.79%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-18 20:35 |
| NordicBet | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -2.04%E -1.33%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -7.19%E -2.79%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-18 20:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -2.04%E -1.33%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -8.27%E -3.24%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-18 18:05 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -2.68%E -1.76%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -8.27%E -3.24%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-18 23:30 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -2.68%E -1.76%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -8.27%E -3.24%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-18 18:05 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -2.68%E -1.76%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -8.27%E -3.24%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-18 18:05 |
| Unibet | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -2.68%E -1.76%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -8.27%E -3.24%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-18 18:05 |
| BetRivers | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -3.32%E -2.20%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -8.27%E -3.24%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-18 18:05 |
| Grosvenor | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -3.32%E -2.20%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -8.27%E -3.24%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-18 18:05 |
| TABtouch | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -3.32%E -2.20%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -8.27%E -3.24%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-18 18:05 |
| betPARX | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -3.32%E -2.20%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -8.27%E -3.24%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-18 18:05 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -3.32%E -2.20%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -8.27%E -3.24%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-18 18:05 |
| Bally Bet | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -3.32%E -2.20%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -8.27%E -3.24%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-18 18:05 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -3.32%E -2.20%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -8.27%E -3.24%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-18 18:05 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -5.88%E -4.00%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -8.27%E -3.24%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-18 19:05 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.91%EV -7.80%E -5.42%K -17.73%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -8.27%E -3.24%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-18 23:30 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.25%EV -3.32%E -2.20%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 37.75%EV -10.43%E -4.19%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-19 00:04 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.94%EV -6.52%E -4.47%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.06%EV -10.79%E -4.35%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-19 00:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly | 1.51I 66.23%NM 66.37% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.63% | -0.2% | 2026-07-18 23:55 |
| Polymarket | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70% | 0.8% | 2026-07-19 00:00 |
| Kalshi | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65% | 0.9% | 2026-07-19 00:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.67% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.33% | 1.1% | 2026-07-19 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.34% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.66% | 1.6% | 2026-07-19 00:10 |
| Matchbook | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.13% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 34.87% | 1.7% | 2026-07-19 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.65% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.35% | 1.8% | 2026-07-19 00:10 |
| ProphetX | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.90% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.10% | 1.8% | 2026-07-19 00:10 |
| Novig | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.67% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33% | 2.0% | 2026-07-19 00:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.72% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.41% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 6.9% | 2026-07-19 00:06 |