Tommy McMillen v Alberto Montes

2026-07-18 21:00 — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Option 1: Tommy McMillen (Local)

Odds

2.0548.78%Min

2.0548.78%Mean

2.0548.78%Median

2.0548.78%Max

Consensus probabilities

46.75%2.139Min

46.75%2.139Max

46.75%2.139Mean

46.75%2.139Median

46.75%2.139IQM

46.75%2.139Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.05 under the IQM model: 46.75%

EV -4.16%Edge -2.03%Kelly -3.96%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Alberto Montes (Visit)

Odds

1.8055.56%Min

1.8055.56%Mean

1.8055.56%Median

1.8055.56%Max

Consensus probabilities

53.25%1.878Min

53.25%1.878Max

53.25%1.878Mean

53.25%1.878Median

53.25%1.878IQM

53.25%1.878Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.80 under the IQM model: 53.25%

EV -4.16%Edge -2.31%Kelly -5.19%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Tommy McMillen (Local) ▼	Alberto Montes (Visit)	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	2.05I 48.78% NM 46.75%EV -4.16% E -2.03% K -3.96% G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56% NM 53.25%EV -4.16% E -2.31% K -5.19% G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-08 19:09

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Tommy McMillen (Local)	Alberto Montes (Visit)	Margin ▲	Updated
Polymarket	2.04I 49.02% NM 45.01%	1.67I 59.88% NM 54.99%	8.9%	2026-07-08 19:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet	2.05I 48.78% NM 45.43%	1.80I 55.56% NM 51.74%	33.00I 3.03% NM 2.82%	7.4%	2026-07-08 19:20