The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Tom Pagliarulo v Ananias Mulumba

Kickoff: 2026-08-11 23:51 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tom Pagliarulo (Local)

Prediction 43.33%2.31fair odd
EV -0.337%
Edge -0.147%
Kelly -0.259%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.03%43.06%43.33%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.232.232.3047.62%44.78%44.84%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ananias Mulumba (Visit)

Prediction 56.67%1.76fair odd
EV -3.10%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -4.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.12%56.94%56.67%58.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.661.651.7162.50%60.06%60.61%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tom Pagliarulo (Local): 43.33%; Ananias Mulumba (Visit): 56.67%. For Tom Pagliarulo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.30, with an expected value of -0.337%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -0.337%E -0.147%K -0.259%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -6.50%E -3.94%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-11 23:40
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -0.337%E -0.147%K -0.259%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -7.63%E -4.68%K -12.11%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-11 08:38
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -0.337%E -0.147%K -0.259%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -9.33%E -5.83%K -15.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-11 21:35
Pinnacle🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.93%EV -2.07%E -0.916%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.07%EV -3.66%E -2.16%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-11 23:30
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -3.37%E -1.51%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.50%E -3.94%K -10.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-11 21:54
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -3.37%E -1.51%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.50%E -3.94%K -10.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-11 21:55
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -3.37%E -1.51%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.50%E -3.94%K -10.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-11 21:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.67%E -2.12%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.10%E -1.81%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-11 23:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.54%E -2.54%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -3.66%E -2.16%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-11 23:40
BetAnything🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.00%E -4.29%K -8.19%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.10%E -1.81%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-11 23:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.11%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.89%2.2%2026-08-11 23:40
ProphetX◎2.20I 45.45%NM 43.88%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.12%3.6%2026-08-11 23:40