Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Timur Khizriev v Gabriel Alves Braga

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 04:10 UTC

Final: Timur Khizriev 1–0 Gabriel Alves Braga

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

72%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Timur Khizriev (Local)

Prediction 71.88%1.39fair odd

EV -3.68%

Edge -2.74%

Kelly -10.82%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

70.62%71.88%71.55%73.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.281.301.301.3478.13%76.69%76.92%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gabriel Alves Braga (Visit)

Prediction 28.12%3.56fair odd

EV +1.22%

Edge +0.340%

Kelly +0.471%

Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.68%28.12%28.45%29.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.103.333.373.6032.26%29.99%29.67%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Timur Khizriev (Local): 71.88%; Gabriel Alves Braga (Visit): 28.12%. For Gabriel Alves Braga (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.22%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.83%E -4.45%K -18.82%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV +1.22%E +0.340%K +0.471%G +0.006%	4.1%	2026-10-16 23:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.55%E -5.04%K -21.84%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -1.59%E -0.453%K -0.635%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-16 17:00
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%EV -3.68%E -2.74%K -10.82%G +0.000%	3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV -5.24%E -1.56%K -2.21%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-10-17 04:05
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 70.62%EV -7.27%E -5.64%K -25.08%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.38%EV -12.83%E -4.14%K -6.11%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-10-17 04:00
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 70.78%EV -7.99%E -6.24%K -28.54%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.22%EV -12.83%E -4.14%K -6.11%G +0.000%	10.4%	2026-10-17 04:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.