The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Tim Elliott v Edgar Chairez

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 20:41 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tim Elliott (Local)

Prediction 36.07%2.77fair odd
EV +0.991%
Edge +0.354%
Kelly +0.550%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.27%36.19%35.91%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.652.652.8040.82%37.81%37.74%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Edgar Chairez (Visit)

Prediction 63.93%1.56fair odd
EV -0.266%
Edge -0.171%
Kelly -0.475%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.03%63.81%64.09%65.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.481.481.5674.07%67.40%67.57%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tim Elliott (Local): 36.07%; Edgar Chairez (Visit): 63.93%. For Tim Elliott (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.991%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV +0.991%E +0.354%K +0.550%G +0.005%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -6.66%E -4.56%K -14.48%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-04 14:35
SportsBet🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.53%EV -1.53%E -0.562%K -0.887%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.47%EV -7.94%E -5.51%K -18.04%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 20:40
FanDuel🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -1.89%E -0.697%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -4.74%E -3.18%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-12 17:35
Caesars🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -2.62%E -0.969%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.74%E -3.18%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-12 19:57
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -2.62%E -0.969%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.02%E -4.10%K -12.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -2.62%E -0.969%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -6.66%E -4.56%K -14.48%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -2.62%E -0.969%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -6.66%E -4.56%K -14.48%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -2.62%E -0.969%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -6.66%E -4.56%K -14.48%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 14:18
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.62%E -0.969%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 14:20
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.62%E -0.969%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.62%E -0.969%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 14:20
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.62%E -0.969%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Bally Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.62%E -0.969%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.62%E -0.969%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 14:20
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.42%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-12 17:21
Bet Right🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.42%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.38%E -3.64%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 15:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.42%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.02%E -4.10%K -12.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-12 17:25
888sport🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.42%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.02%E -4.10%K -12.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -5.14%E -1.95%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-12 15:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -5.14%E -1.95%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-12 15:16
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.50%E -2.10%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-12 15:20
ReBet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 36.80%EV -5.86%E -2.25%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.20%EV -2.82%E -1.86%K -5.43%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -6.22%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -1.54%E -1.00%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-12 19:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -6.22%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.18%E -1.43%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-12 20:10
BetAnything🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -6.22%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.18%E -1.43%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-12 20:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.22%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.22%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 17:20
Fliff🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.22%E -2.39%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.38%E -3.64%K -11.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 20:31
Pinnacle🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 37.68%EV -6.94%E -2.69%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.32%EV -0.266%E -0.171%K -0.475%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-12 20:30
BetUS🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -6.94%E -2.69%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -2.18%E -1.43%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-12 15:05
DraftKings🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -8.39%E -3.30%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -1.54%E -1.00%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-12 20:30
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.83%E -3.93%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.18%E -1.43%K -4.12%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-12 20:40
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.53%EV -11.63%E -4.75%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 64.47%EV -13.69%E -10.14%K -39.12%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-08 20:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%0.5%2026-09-12 20:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%0.6%2026-09-12 20:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%0.6%2026-09-12 20:40
Matchbook◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%0.6%2026-09-12 20:35
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%1.1%2026-09-12 20:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.54%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.61%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84%8.4%2026-09-12 20:10