Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Thomas Gantt v Artur Minev

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 23:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

62%

38%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Thomas Gantt (Local)

Prediction 62.43%1.60fair odd

EV +2.38%

Edge +1.45%

Kelly +3.72%

Growth +0.089%

assuming max odds 1.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.38%62.28%62.25%64.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.481.531.521.6467.57%65.51%65.79%60.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Artur Minev (Visit)

Prediction 37.57%2.66fair odd

EV +1.07%

Edge +0.397%

Kelly +0.632%

Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 2.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.84%37.72%37.75%41.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.302.552.552.6943.48%39.19%39.22%37.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Thomas Gantt (Local): 62.43%; Artur Minev (Visit): 37.57%. For Thomas Gantt (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.60. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.64, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.38%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Betsson🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV +2.38%E +1.45%K +3.72%G +0.089%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -13.59%E -5.91%K -10.45%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-05-16 20:45
NordicBet🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV +2.38%E +1.45%K +3.72%G +0.089%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -13.59%E -5.91%K -10.45%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-05-16 20:50
Pinnacle🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -2.61%E -1.67%K -4.66%G +0.000%	2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -3.44%E -1.34%K -2.19%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-05-16 15:05
Coolbet🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.53%EV -3.86%E -2.51%K -7.15%G +0.000%	2.57I 38.91%NM 37.47%EV -3.44%E -1.34%K -2.19%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-05-16 15:45
DraftKings🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -3.86%E -2.51%K -7.15%G +0.000%	2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -4.57%E -1.80%K -2.97%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-05-16 23:00
Caesars🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.48%E -2.93%K -8.46%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.31%E -0.890%K -1.45%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-05-16 23:12
BetUS🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -4.48%E -2.93%K -8.46%G +0.000%	2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -3.07%E -1.19%K -1.94%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-05-16 23:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.48%E -2.93%K -8.46%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.19%E -1.64%K -2.70%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-05-16 18:00
Neds🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.48%E -2.93%K -8.46%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.19%E -1.64%K -2.70%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-05-16 17:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.48%E -2.93%K -8.46%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.19%E -1.64%K -2.70%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-05-16 17:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.48%E -2.93%K -8.46%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.07%E -2.43%K -4.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-05-16 15:10
TAB🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.48%E -2.93%K -8.46%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.07%E -2.43%K -4.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-05-15 22:05
Betway🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.48%E -2.93%K -8.46%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.07%E -2.43%K -4.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-05-16 06:14
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.48%E -2.93%K -8.46%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.07%E -2.43%K -4.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-05-16 10:00
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.90%EV -5.11%E -3.36%K -9.82%G +0.000%	2.69I 37.17%NM 36.10%EV +1.07%E +0.397%K +0.632%G +0.007%	3.0%	2026-05-16 23:15
BetAnything🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.46%EV -5.11%E -3.36%K -9.82%G +0.000%	2.64I 37.88%NM 36.54%EV -0.811%E -0.307%K -0.495%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-05-16 23:15
Unibet🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.11%E -3.36%K -9.82%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.19%E -1.64%K -2.70%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-16 17:45
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.11%E -3.36%K -9.82%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.19%E -1.64%K -2.70%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-16 17:45
Virgin Bet🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.11%E -3.36%K -9.82%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.19%E -1.64%K -2.70%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-16 17:45
PlayUp🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.11%E -3.36%K -9.82%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.07%E -2.43%K -4.05%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-16 17:20
Betr (AU)🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.11%E -3.36%K -9.82%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.07%E -2.43%K -4.05%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-16 17:50
FanDuel🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.79%EV -5.73%E -3.80%K -11.24%G +0.000%	2.66I 37.59%NM 36.21%EV -0.060%E -0.022%K -0.036%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-05-15 23:20
Bovada🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -5.73%E -3.80%K -11.24%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -0.435%E -0.164%K -0.264%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-05-16 23:14
TABtouch🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.73%E -3.80%K -11.24%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.19%E -1.64%K -2.70%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-05-16 17:45
LeoVegas🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.73%E -3.80%K -11.24%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.19%E -1.64%K -2.70%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-05-16 17:45
Grosvenor🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.73%E -3.80%K -11.24%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.19%E -1.64%K -2.70%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-05-16 17:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -6.36%E -4.24%K -12.71%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -1.19%E -0.451%K -0.728%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-14 06:15
Paddy Power🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.36%E -4.24%K -12.71%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -1.56%E -0.596%K -0.965%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-14 06:14
888sport🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.36%E -4.24%K -12.71%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.19%E -1.64%K -2.70%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-05-16 23:00
William Hill🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.36%E -4.24%K -12.71%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.07%E -2.43%K -4.05%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-14 15:05
SportsBet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -6.98%E -4.69%K -14.25%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -0.435%E -0.164%K -0.264%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-16 04:45
Bet Right🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.61%E -5.14%K -15.85%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -0.435%E -0.164%K -0.264%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-16 23:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
BetOpenly◎	1.58I 63.29%NM 63.26%	2.72I 36.76%NM 36.74%	0.1%	2026-05-16 23:05
Novig◎	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.89%	2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11%	0.3%	2026-05-16 23:15
Matchbook◎	1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%	2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%	0.6%	2026-05-16 23:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23%	2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77%	1.1%	2026-05-16 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23%	2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77%	1.1%	2026-05-16 23:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23%	2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77%	1.1%	2026-05-16 22:55
Kalshi◎	1.54I 64.94%NM 63.68%	2.70I 37.04%NM 36.32%	2.0%	2026-05-16 23:15
ProphetX◎	1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%	2.6%	2026-05-16 23:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 61.87%	2.54I 39.37%NM 36.29%	50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84%	8.5%	2026-05-16 10:09