Language:English
Thiago Moises v Gauge Young
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Thiago Moises (Local)
Prediction 40.41%2.47fair odd
EV -0.195%
Edge -0.079%
Kelly -0.133%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.47
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.01%40.41%40.64%42.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.342.302.4745.45%42.77%43.48%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Gauge Young (Visit)
Prediction 59.59%1.68fair odd
EV -1.67%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -2.57%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.69%59.59%59.36%60.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.611.621.6563.69%62.21%61.73%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Thiago Moises (Local): 40.41%; Gauge Young (Visit): 59.59%. For Thiago Moises (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.475. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.470, with an expected value of -0.195%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.01%EV -0.195%E -0.079%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.99%EV -5.84%E -3.70%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-19 00:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.56%EV -0.600%E -0.244%K -0.411%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.44%EV -4.05%E -2.52%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-04-18 23:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -1.00%E -0.410%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.44%E -4.10%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-19 00:06 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -1.00%E -0.410%K -0.692%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.44%E -4.10%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-18 23:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -2.22%E -0.916%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -5.25%E -3.30%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-19 00:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.02%E -1.26%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.25%E -3.30%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-18 23:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.02%E -1.26%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.84%E -3.70%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-18 23:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.02%E -1.26%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.84%E -3.70%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-18 23:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.02%E -1.26%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.84%E -3.70%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-19 00:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.02%E -1.26%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.44%E -4.10%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-19 00:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.02%E -1.26%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.44%E -4.10%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-18 23:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -4.64%E -1.97%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.46%E -2.14%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-18 17:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -5.04%E -2.15%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -1.67%E -1.01%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-19 00:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -5.04%E -2.15%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -2.86%E -1.76%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-18 16:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.04%E -2.15%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.46%E -2.14%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-18 16:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.04%E -2.15%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.46%E -2.14%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-18 16:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.04%E -2.15%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.65%E -2.91%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-18 17:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.06%E -3.07%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.46%E -2.14%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 14:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.06%E -3.07%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.46%E -2.14%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 14:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.06%E -3.07%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.46%E -2.14%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 14:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.06%E -3.07%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.46%E -2.14%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 14:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.06%E -3.07%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.46%E -2.14%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 14:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.06%E -3.07%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.46%E -2.14%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 14:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.06%E -3.07%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.46%E -2.14%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 14:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.06%E -3.07%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.46%E -2.14%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 14:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.06%E -3.07%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.46%E -2.14%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 14:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.06%E -3.07%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.46%E -2.14%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 14:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.06%E -3.07%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.46%E -2.14%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 14:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.06%E -3.07%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.46%E -2.14%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 14:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.06%E -3.07%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.46%E -2.14%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 14:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.06%E -3.07%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.46%E -2.14%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 14:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.06%E -3.07%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.65%E -2.91%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-18 23:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.06%E -3.07%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.44%E -4.10%K -11.30%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-18 23:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -9.08%E -4.04%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -1.67%E -1.01%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 00:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -9.08%E -4.04%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.46%E -2.14%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-18 17:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -9.08%E -4.04%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.46%E -2.14%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-18 17:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -11.11%E -5.05%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -4.05%E -2.52%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-18 19:43 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 39.05% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.95% | 0.0% | 2026-04-18 23:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56% | 0.5% | 2026-04-19 00:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24% | 0.6% | 2026-04-19 00:10 |
| Novig◎ | 2.45I 40.82%NM 40.39% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.61% | 1.1% | 2026-04-19 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.49% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.51% | 1.2% | 2026-04-19 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.49% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.51% | 1.2% | 2026-04-19 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.49% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.51% | 1.2% | 2026-04-19 00:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.95% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.18% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.88% | 6.6% | 2026-04-18 22:25 |