The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Thad Jean v Shamil Musaev

Kickoff: 2026-07-26 03:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Thad Jean (Local)

Prediction 43.61%2.29fair odd
EV +2.48%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +1.84%
Growth +0.046%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.05%43.61%43.61%44.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.272.292.3546.51%44.05%43.76%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shamil Musaev (Visit)

Prediction 56.39%1.77fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.27%56.39%56.39%59.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.631.611.7463.69%61.35%62.11%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Thad Jean (Local): 43.61%; Shamil Musaev (Visit): 56.39%. For Thad Jean (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.29. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.48%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV +2.48%E +1.06%K +1.84%G +0.046%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -10.90%E -6.90%K -18.80%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-23 15:44
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +2.48%E +1.06%K +1.84%G +0.046%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -11.47%E -7.30%K -20.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-23 15:45
Bally Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +2.48%E +1.06%K +1.84%G +0.046%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -11.47%E -7.30%K -20.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-23 15:44
FanDuel🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.49%EV -3.19%E -1.44%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.51%EV -7.52%E -4.58%K -11.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-23 18:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.06%E -1.85%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.26%E -3.13%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-23 19:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -6.24%E -2.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -1.88%E -1.08%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-23 20:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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