Thad Jean v Shamil Musaev

2026-07-25 22:00 UTC — MMA

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Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

43%

57%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Thad Jean (Local)

Prediction 42.89%2.33fair odd

EV -3.49%

Edge -1.55%

Kelly -2.79%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.89%42.89%42.89%43.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.202.232.232.2545%45%45%44%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Shamil Musaev (Visit)

Prediction 57.11%1.75fair odd

EV -3.49%

Edge -2.06%

Kelly -5.06%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

56.70%57.11%57.11%57.11%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.681.691.691.6960%59%59%59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.49%E -1.55%K -2.79%G +0.000%	1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.49%E -2.06%K -5.06%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-07-23 00:48
Ladbrokes (AU)	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.63%E -2.56%K -4.70%G +0.000%	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.06%E -2.42%K -5.97%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-23 00:54

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.