Thad Jean v Ernesto Rodriguez

2026-07-25 03:30 UTC — MMA

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Head to Head

1 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

81%

19%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Thad Jean (Local)

Prediction 80.62%1.24fair odd

EV -4.06%

Edge -3.41%

Kelly -21.39%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

80.62%80.62%80.62%80.62%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.191.191.191.1984%84%84%84%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Ernesto Rodriguez (Visit)

Prediction 19.38%5.16fair odd

EV -4.06%

Edge -0.821%

Kelly -1.03%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

19.38%19.38%19.38%19.38%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

4.954.954.954.9520%20%20%20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.62%EV -4.06%E -3.41%K -21.39%G +0.000%	4.95I 20.20%NM 19.38%EV -4.06%E -0.821%K -1.03%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-07-23 23:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.