The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Taylor Lapilus v Jake Hadley

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 20:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Taylor Lapilus (Local)

Prediction 86.83%1.15fair odd
EV -3.61%
Edge -3.26%
Kelly -32.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.41%86.83%86.83%87.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.101.111.1191.74%90.67%90.09%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jake Hadley (Visit)

Prediction 13.17%7.60fair odd
EV +0.056%
Edge +0.007%
Kelly +0.008%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.64%13.17%13.17%14.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.506.947.007.6015.38%14.40%14.29%13.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Taylor Lapilus (Local): 86.83%; Jake Hadley (Visit): 13.17%. For Jake Hadley (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.596. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.600, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.056%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.36%EV -4.48%E -4.07%K -44.82%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.64%EV +0.056%E +0.007%K +0.008%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-23 20:19
Neds🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.93%EV -5.35%E -4.91%K -59.45%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.07%EV -4.55%E -0.628%K -0.728%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-23 12:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.93%EV -5.35%E -4.91%K -59.45%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.07%EV -4.55%E -0.628%K -0.728%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-23 12:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -3.61%E -3.26%K -32.85%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -7.84%E -1.12%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-23 20:15
LeoVegas🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -3.61%E -3.26%K -32.85%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -14.43%E -2.22%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-23 16:39
Grosvenor🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -3.61%E -3.26%K -32.85%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -14.43%E -2.22%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-23 16:39
Unibet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -3.61%E -3.26%K -32.85%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -14.43%E -2.22%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-23 16:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.