The School of Odds
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Tatsuro Taira v Joshua Van

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 02:55 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tatsuro Taira (Local)

Prediction 58.64%1.71fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -3.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.22%58.59%58.59%59.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.641.651.6764.10%60.98%60.61%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Joshua Van (Visit)

Prediction 41.36%2.42fair odd
EV -1.56%
Edge -0.654%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.51%41.41%41.41%42.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.222.272.252.3845.05%43.96%44.44%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tatsuro Taira (Local): 58.64%; Joshua Van (Visit): 41.36%. For Joshua Van (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.42. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.38, with an expected value of -1.56%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.08%E -1.24%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-10 02:44
Coolbet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.40%EV -2.66%E -1.60%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.60%EV -3.63%E -1.56%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-10 02:45
LeoVegas🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.66%E -1.60%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 02:44
BetRivers🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.66%E -1.60%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 02:44
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.66%E -1.60%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 02:45
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.66%E -1.60%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 02:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.66%E -1.60%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 02:44
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.66%E -1.60%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 02:44
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.66%E -1.60%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 02:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.66%E -1.60%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 02:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.66%E -1.60%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 02:44
Bally Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.66%E -1.60%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 02:44
betPARX🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.66%E -1.60%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 02:44
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -2.66%E -1.60%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 02:44
Bet Right🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -2.66%E -1.60%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -8.18%E -3.68%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 02:44
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.44%EV -3.25%E -1.97%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.56%EV -4.04%E -1.74%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-10 02:40
Caesars🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.25%E -1.97%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-10 02:42
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.25%E -1.97%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-10 02:45
Pinnacle🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.20%EV -3.83%E -2.34%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80%EV -1.56%E -0.654%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-10 02:44
BetOnline.ag🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -3.83%E -2.34%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -2.38%E -1.01%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-10 02:44
FanDuel🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -3.83%E -2.34%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -4.04%E -1.74%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-10 02:44
Neds🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.83%E -2.34%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-10 02:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.83%E -2.34%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-10 02:45
SportsBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.42%E -2.71%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-10 02:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.42%E -2.71%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-10 02:44
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -5.01%E -3.09%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -2.38%E -1.01%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-10 02:44
888sport🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.01%E -3.09%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-10 02:44
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.01%E -3.09%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 02:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.01%E -3.09%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 02:44
BetAnything🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.59%E -3.47%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.80%E -1.19%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-10 02:44
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.18%E -3.86%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.80%E -1.19%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 02:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.18%E -3.86%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-10 02:44
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.77%E -4.26%K -11.47%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-10 02:37
Betclic (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -8.53%E -5.47%K -15.22%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-10 02:36
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.68I 59.52%NM 59.52%2.47I 40.49%NM 40.48%0.0%2026-05-10 02:38
Novig◎1.65I 60.61%NM 60.34%2.51I 39.84%NM 39.66%0.4%2026-05-10 02:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%0.6%2026-05-10 02:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%0.6%2026-05-10 02:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%0.6%2026-05-10 02:49
Matchbook◎1.65I 60.61%NM 59.85%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.15%1.3%2026-05-10 02:44
ProphetX◎1.65I 60.61%NM 59.46%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54%1.9%2026-05-10 02:49

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.64%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.49%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87%7.0%2026-05-10 02:42