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Tanner Boser v Jhonata Diniz

2026-10-18 02:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tanner Boser (Local)

Prediction 31.55%3.17fair odd
EV -2.19%
Edge -0.706%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.18%31.47%31.55%32.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.982.953.1037.74%33.57%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jhonata Diniz (Visit)

Prediction 68.45%1.46fair odd
EV -4.17%
Edge -2.98%
Kelly -10.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.26%68.53%68.45%69.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.381.401.4077.52%72.21%71.43%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Tanner Boser (Local): 31.55%; Jhonata Diniz (Visit): 68.45%. For Tanner Boser (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.17. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.10, with an expected value of -2.19%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -2.19%E -0.706%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -4.17%E -2.98%K -10.43%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-10 14:00
Caesars🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.19%E -0.706%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.54%E -4.02%K -14.59%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-10 14:00
Betsson🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -2.19%E -0.706%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -7.60%E -5.63%K -21.70%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 14:01
NordicBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -2.19%E -0.706%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -8.28%E -6.18%K -24.35%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-10 14:00
BetUS🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 31.39%EV -3.45%E -1.13%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.61%EV -4.17%E -2.98%K -10.43%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-10 14:54
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -3.76%E -1.23%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -4.17%E -2.98%K -10.43%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 18:20
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.17%E -2.98%K -10.43%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-10 14:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.34%E -1.78%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.17%E -2.98%K -10.43%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-10 15:10
betPARX🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.92%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.17%E -2.98%K -10.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 14:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.92%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.17%E -2.98%K -10.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 14:55
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.92%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.17%E -2.98%K -10.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 15:00
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.92%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.17%E -2.98%K -10.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 15:00
BetRivers🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.92%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.17%E -2.98%K -10.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 15:00
Bally Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.92%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.17%E -2.98%K -10.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 15:00
888sport🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.92%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.17%E -2.98%K -10.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 15:09
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.92%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.17%E -2.98%K -10.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 17:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.92%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.17%E -2.98%K -10.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 17:29
Betr (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -6.92%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -4.86%E -3.49%K -12.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 20:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -6.92%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -6.91%E -5.08%K -19.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-10 14:00
ReBet🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 31.79%EV -7.24%E -2.46%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.21%EV -6.23%E -4.55%K -16.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.74%EV -16.39%E -6.18%K -9.93%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 67.26%EV -11.70%E -9.07%K -40.35%G +0.000%15.3%2026-10-10 15:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎2.94I 34.01%NM 26.13%1.04I 96.15%NM 73.87%30.2%2026-10-10 19:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.40%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.79%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.81%7.9%2026-10-10 15:45