The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Tanner Boser v Jhonata Diniz

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 23:38 UTC

Final: Tanner Boser 1–0 Jhonata Diniz

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tanner Boser (Local)

Prediction 34.30%2.92fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -0.661%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.26%34.52%34.40%36.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.772.802.8639.22%36.12%35.71%34.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jhonata Diniz (Visit)

Prediction 65.70%1.52fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.971%
Kelly -2.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.59%65.48%65.60%66.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.441.451.5075.19%69.29%68.97%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tanner Boser (Local): 34.30%; Jhonata Diniz (Visit): 65.70%. For Jhonata Diniz (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.50, with an expected value of -1.46%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.95%EV -1.89%E -0.661%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 66.05%EV -3.43%E -2.33%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-17 22:54
Pinnacle🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.95%EV -1.89%E -0.661%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 66.05%EV -3.43%E -2.33%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-17 22:35
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -2.23%E -0.783%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -6.71%E -4.73%K -15.98%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-17 22:34
FanDuel🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -2.58%E -0.907%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -4.74%E -3.27%K -10.54%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-17 23:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 34.03%EV -2.92%E -1.03%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.97%EV -4.08%E -2.80%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-17 23:05
BetUS🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.96%EV -3.26%E -1.16%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.04%EV -4.74%E -3.27%K -10.54%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-17 23:20
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -3.95%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.43%E -2.33%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-17 22:59
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -3.95%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -4.08%E -2.80%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-17 22:35
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.95%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.40%E -3.75%K -12.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-16 10:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.95%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.40%E -3.75%K -12.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-16 10:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.95%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.40%E -3.75%K -12.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-16 10:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.95%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.40%E -3.75%K -12.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-16 10:09
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.95%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.40%E -3.75%K -12.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-17 23:20
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -3.95%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.06%E -4.23%K -14.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 10:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -3.95%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.06%E -4.23%K -14.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 10:10
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -3.95%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.06%E -4.23%K -14.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 10:10
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -3.95%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.06%E -4.23%K -14.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 10:10
Bally Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -3.95%E -1.41%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.06%E -4.23%K -14.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 10:08
ReBet🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 34.51%EV -4.29%E -1.54%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.49%EV -3.43%E -2.33%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-17 22:10
NordicBet🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.67%EV -4.98%E -1.80%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.33%EV -3.43%E -2.33%K -7.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-17 23:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.74%E -3.27%K -10.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-17 22:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.74%E -3.27%K -10.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-17 23:20
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.74%E -3.27%K -10.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-17 22:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.74%E -3.27%K -10.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 19:19
TAB🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.40%E -3.75%K -12.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 23:19
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.03%E -5.73%K -20.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 23:15
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.03%E -5.73%K -20.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 23:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.66%E -2.06%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.03%E -5.73%K -20.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 23:15
Caesars🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -7.38%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -2.11%E -1.42%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-17 17:38
Betsson🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.38%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.74%E -3.27%K -10.54%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-17 23:25
BetAnything🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.38%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.74%E -3.27%K -10.54%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-17 22:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -9.09%E -3.43%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -3.43%E -2.33%K -7.29%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 20:20
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -10.12%E -3.86%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -1.46%E -0.971%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-17 05:15
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.28%EV -12.52%E -4.91%K -8.08%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 65.72%EV -12.62%E -9.49%K -38.26%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-16 10:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.63%1.51I 66.23%NM 66.37%-0.2%2026-10-17 23:15
ProphetX◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%0.4%2026-10-17 23:30
Matchbook◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37%0.5%2026-10-17 23:25
Novig◎2.99I 33.44%NM 33.26%1.49I 67.11%NM 66.74%0.6%2026-10-17 23:30
Polymarket◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%0.8%2026-10-17 23:05
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%0.8%2026-10-17 16:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94%1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06%0.9%2026-10-17 23:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94%1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06%0.9%2026-10-17 23:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94%1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06%0.9%2026-10-17 23:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 32.95%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.20%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85%8.0%2026-10-16 10:59