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Talita Alencar v Piera Rodriguez

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 21:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Talita Alencar (Local)

Prediction 27.71%3.61fair odd
EV +3.35%
Edge +0.899%
Kelly +1.23%
Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 3.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.84%27.70%27.39%29.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.353.253.7334.48%29.84%30.77%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Piera Rodriguez (Visit)

Prediction 72.29%1.38fair odd
EV -0.961%
Edge -0.701%
Kelly -2.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.02%72.30%72.61%74.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.321.331.3780.65%75.65%75.19%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Talita Alencar (Local): 27.71%; Piera Rodriguez (Visit): 72.29%. For Talita Alencar (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.61. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.73, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.35%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯3.73I 26.81%NM 25.84%EV +3.35%E +0.899%K +1.23%G +0.041%1.30I 76.92%NM 74.16%EV -6.02%E -4.63%K -20.07%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-31 20:39
ReBet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV +1.14%E +0.311%K +0.429%G +0.005%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -6.02%E -4.63%K -20.07%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-31 20:45
BetUS🎯3.61I 27.70%NM 26.63%EV +0.028%E +0.008%K +0.011%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.37%EV -5.30%E -4.04%K -17.09%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-31 21:19
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.249%E -0.069%K -0.096%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.30%E -4.04%K -17.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-31 20:39
Pinnacle🎯3.58I 27.93%NM 27.09%EV -0.803%E -0.224%K -0.311%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.91%EV -3.85%E -2.90%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-31 20:50
DraftKings🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -3.02%E -0.863%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.58%E -3.47%K -14.30%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-31 20:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.02%E -0.863%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.30%E -4.04%K -17.09%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-31 20:45
Caesars🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.02%E -0.863%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.30%E -4.04%K -17.09%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-31 20:41
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.02%E -0.863%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.02%E -4.63%K -20.07%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-31 20:35
Coolbet🎯3.47I 28.82%NM 27.71%EV -3.85%E -1.11%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.29%EV -3.85%E -2.90%K -11.67%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-27 20:05
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -3.13%E -2.34%K -9.20%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-31 01:05
Bet Right🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.30%E -4.04%K -17.09%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-31 21:10
BetAnything🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -5.79%E -1.70%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.30%E -4.04%K -17.09%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-31 21:20
NordicBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -7.18%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -2.41%E -1.78%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-31 14:25
Betr (AU)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -7.18%E -2.14%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -5.30%E -4.04%K -17.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-31 20:35
TABtouch🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -9.95%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -3.13%E -2.34%K -9.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-30 11:50
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -9.95%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -3.13%E -2.34%K -9.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-30 11:55
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -9.95%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -3.13%E -2.34%K -9.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-30 11:55
BetRivers🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -9.95%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -3.13%E -2.34%K -9.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-30 11:55
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -9.95%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -3.13%E -2.34%K -9.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-30 11:55
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -9.95%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -3.13%E -2.34%K -9.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-30 11:50
betPARX🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -9.95%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -3.13%E -2.34%K -9.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-30 11:55
Bally Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -9.95%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -3.13%E -2.34%K -9.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-30 11:54
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -9.95%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -3.13%E -2.34%K -9.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-30 11:50
Betsson🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.95%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.85%E -2.90%K -11.67%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-31 05:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.95%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.85%E -2.90%K -11.67%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-30 11:50
Betway🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -9.95%E -3.06%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.85%E -2.90%K -11.67%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-26 17:00
Bovada🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -11.33%E -3.54%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -0.961%E -0.701%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-31 21:15
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.33%E -3.54%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.02%E -4.63%K -20.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 01:04
Sky Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.33%E -3.54%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.02%E -4.63%K -20.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 01:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.33%E -3.54%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.02%E -4.63%K -20.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 01:05
Grosvenor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.95%EV -19.64%E -6.77%K -10.34%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 70.05%EV -10.36%E -8.35%K -43.16%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-30 11:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27%1.1%2026-10-31 20:50
Polymarket◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68%1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32%1.2%2026-10-31 21:25
ProphetX◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.42%1.36I 73.53%NM 72.58%1.3%2026-10-31 21:30
Novig◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.59%1.34I 74.63%NM 73.41%1.7%2026-10-31 21:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.71%2.8%2026-10-31 21:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.71%2.8%2026-10-31 21:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%4.0%2026-10-31 21:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯3.28I 30.49%NM 28.09%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%35.00I 2.86%NM 2.63%8.5%2026-10-29 10:30

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