Language:English
Talita Alencar v Julia Polastri
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Talita Alencar (Local)
Prediction 31.10%3.21fair odd
EV -0.156%
Edge -0.048%
Kelly -0.070%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.61%31.08%31.00%32.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.043.003.2134.48%32.89%33.33%31.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Julia Polastri (Visit)
Prediction 68.90%1.45fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -5.16%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.44%68.92%69.00%70.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.381.401.4274.07%72.28%71.68%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Talita Alencar (Local): 31.10%; Julia Polastri (Visit): 68.90%. For Talita Alencar (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.215. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.210, with an expected value of -0.156%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.61%EV -0.156%E -0.048%K -0.070%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.39%EV -6.99%E -5.18%K -19.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 01:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -0.467%E -0.146%K -0.212%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -5.61%E -4.10%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-23 12:32 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -0.467%E -0.146%K -0.212%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.30%E -4.63%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 21:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -0.467%E -0.146%K -0.212%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.30%E -4.63%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 12:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -0.467%E -0.146%K -0.212%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.30%E -4.63%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 12:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -0.467%E -0.146%K -0.212%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.30%E -4.63%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 12:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -0.467%E -0.146%K -0.212%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -6.99%E -5.18%K -19.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 13:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -0.467%E -0.146%K -0.212%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -6.99%E -5.18%K -19.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 13:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -2.02%E -0.642%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.92%E -3.57%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-23 09:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -2.02%E -0.642%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.99%E -5.18%K -19.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-21 00:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.75%EV -2.64%E -0.845%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.25%EV -4.23%E -3.05%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-22 23:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -3.58%E -1.15%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.92%E -3.57%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-22 15:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -3.58%E -1.15%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.61%E -4.10%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-24 03:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.39%EV -4.82%E -1.58%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.61%EV -3.55%E -2.53%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-23 12:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -5.13%E -1.68%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -2.17%E -1.53%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-23 19:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -5.13%E -1.68%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -3.55%E -2.53%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-18 20:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -5.13%E -1.68%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -4.92%E -3.57%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 19:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.69%E -2.23%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.55%E -2.53%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-21 15:29 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.69%E -2.23%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.55%E -2.53%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 20:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.69%E -2.23%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.92%E -3.57%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 12:48 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.69%E -2.23%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.30%E -4.63%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 01:03 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.69%E -2.23%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.30%E -4.63%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-15 21:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.69%E -2.23%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.30%E -4.63%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-15 21:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.69%E -2.23%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.30%E -4.63%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 01:03 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.24%E -2.79%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.55%E -2.53%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.24%E -2.79%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.55%E -2.53%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.24%E -2.79%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.55%E -2.53%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.24%E -2.79%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.55%E -2.53%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.24%E -2.79%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.55%E -2.53%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.24%E -2.79%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.55%E -2.53%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.24%E -2.79%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.55%E -2.53%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.24%E -2.79%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.55%E -2.53%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.24%E -2.79%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.55%E -2.53%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.24%E -2.79%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.55%E -2.53%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.24%E -2.79%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.55%E -2.53%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.24%E -2.79%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.55%E -2.53%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.24%E -2.79%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.55%E -2.53%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.24%E -2.79%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.55%E -2.53%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 20:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -8.24%E -2.79%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -4.23%E -3.05%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 20:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.80%E -3.38%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.55%E -2.53%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-19 08:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.46% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 70.54% | -0.2% | 2026-04-23 09:49 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.57I 28.01%NM 28.02% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.98% | -0.0% | 2026-04-23 16:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59% | 1.2% | 2026-04-23 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59% | 1.2% | 2026-04-23 22:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59% | 1.2% | 2026-04-23 22:59 |
| Novig◎ | 3.18I 31.45%NM 31.02% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.98% | 1.4% | 2026-04-23 19:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.13% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.87% | 3.7% | 2026-04-23 16:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 21:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.45% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.13% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.42% | 8.7% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |