Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Takeru Uchida v Jiniushiyue

Kickoff: 2026-08-28 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

32%

68%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Takeru Uchida (Local)

Prediction 31.52%3.17fair odd

EV +1.81%

Edge +0.560%

Kelly +0.811%

Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 3.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.78%31.52%31.52%33.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.893.073.103.2334.60%32.54%32.26%30.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jiniushiyue (Visit)

Prediction 68.48%1.46fair odd

EV -1.39%

Edge -0.964%

Kelly -3.15%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

66.74%68.48%68.48%70.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.371.401.381.4472.99%71.60%72.46%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Takeru Uchida (Local): 31.52%; Jiniushiyue (Visit): 68.48%. For Takeru Uchida (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.17. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.23, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.81%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	3.23I 30.96%NM 29.78%EV +1.81%E +0.560%K +0.811%G +0.015%	1.37I 72.99%NM 70.22%EV -6.18%E -4.51%K -16.71%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-27 03:04
Bovada🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.29%E -0.739%K -1.09%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.50%E -3.98%K -14.47%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-27 04:56
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -8.91%E -3.08%K -4.71%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -1.39%E -0.964%K -3.15%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-27 04:09

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	3.21I 31.15%NM 28.78%	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.42%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.80%	8.3%	2026-08-27 08:10