The School of Odds
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Taila Santos v Sabrinna de Sousa

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 01:40 UTC

Final: Taila Santos 0–1 Sabrinna de Sousa

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Taila Santos (Local)

Prediction 58.50%1.71fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.10%58.50%57.36%61.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.621.621.6864.94%61.87%61.73%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sabrinna de Sousa (Visit)

Prediction 41.50%2.41fair odd
EV +3.34%
Edge +1.34%
Kelly +2.24%
Growth +0.075%

assuming max odds 2.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.97%41.50%42.64%42.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.292.282.4948.78%43.76%43.86%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Taila Santos (Local): 58.50%; Sabrinna de Sousa (Visit): 41.50%. For Sabrinna de Sousa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.41. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.49, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -6.99%E -4.40%K -11.85%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV +3.34%E +1.34%K +2.24%G +0.075%3.1%2026-08-23 01:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.40%E -4.00%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.47%E -1.05%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 12:49
ReBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.97%EV -2.89%E -1.74%K -4.38%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.03%EV -4.96%E -2.17%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-23 01:25
Grosvenor🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -5.23%E -3.23%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -5.37%E -2.36%K -4.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 19:00
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -5.23%E -3.23%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -5.37%E -2.36%K -4.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 19:00
Bally Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -5.23%E -3.23%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -5.37%E -2.36%K -4.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 19:00
FanDuel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.36%EV -1.72%E -1.03%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.64%EV -6.20%E -2.75%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-22 07:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.10%EV -9.91%E -6.44%K -18.36%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.90%EV -14.92%E -7.28%K -14.21%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-23 01:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.