Language:English
Tai Tuivasa v Robelis Despaigne
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tai Tuivasa (Local)
Prediction 22.14%4.52fair odd
EV +14.00%
Edge +2.72%
Kelly +3.37%
Growth +0.473%
assuming max odds 5.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.64%21.81%22.26%25.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.294.305.1527.40%23.33%23.26%19.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Robelis Despaigne (Visit)
Prediction 77.86%1.28fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -2.14%
Kelly -10.68%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.64%78.19%77.74%81.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.221.221.2589.29%82.03%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tai Tuivasa (Local): 22.14%; Robelis Despaigne (Visit): 77.86%. For Tai Tuivasa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.52. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.00%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.64%EV +14.00%E +2.72%K +3.37%G +0.473% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.36%EV -8.12%E -6.88%K -45.12%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-19 20:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.68%EV +11.79%E +2.33%K +2.91%G +0.343% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.32%EV -9.68%E -8.34%K -60.49%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-19 20:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.65%EV +2.94%E +0.631%K +0.804%G +0.024% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.35%EV -5.79%E -4.78%K -27.55%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-19 18:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -0.385%E -0.086%K -0.110%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.56%E -5.47%K -32.82%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-20 00:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -2.60%E -0.591%K -0.764%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.23%E -3.44%K -18.38%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-19 23:53 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -2.60%E -0.591%K -0.764%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -5.01%E -4.10%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-19 19:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -2.60%E -0.591%K -0.764%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -5.01%E -4.10%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-19 19:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.36I 22.94%NM 22.28%EV -3.48%E -0.799%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.72%EV -2.67%E -2.14%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-20 00:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -3.71%E -0.852%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.79%E -4.78%K -27.55%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-19 23:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -3.71%E -0.852%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.79%E -4.78%K -27.55%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-19 23:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -3.71%E -0.852%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.79%E -4.78%K -27.55%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-19 23:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -3.71%E -0.852%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.79%E -4.78%K -27.55%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-19 23:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -3.71%E -0.852%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.79%E -4.78%K -27.55%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-19 23:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -3.71%E -0.852%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.79%E -4.78%K -27.55%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-19 23:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -3.71%E -0.852%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.79%E -4.78%K -27.55%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-19 23:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -3.71%E -0.852%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.24%EV -5.79%E -4.78%K -27.55%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-19 23:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -4.81%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -3.45%E -2.78%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-19 23:04 |
| ReBet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -4.81%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -4.23%E -3.44%K -18.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-20 00:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -4.81%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -4.23%E -3.44%K -18.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-20 00:06 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -5.92%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.45%E -2.78%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-20 00:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -5.92%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -4.23%E -3.44%K -18.38%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-19 23:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -5.92%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.01%E -4.10%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-20 00:09 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -5.92%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -5.79%E -4.78%K -27.55%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-19 23:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -7.03%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -2.67%E -2.14%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-20 00:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -7.03%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.23%E -3.44%K -18.38%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-20 00:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -7.03%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.23%E -3.44%K -18.38%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-20 00:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.03%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.01%E -4.10%K -22.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-19 23:14 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.24%E -2.25%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.45%E -2.78%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-20 00:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -13.67%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -2.67%E -2.14%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-20 00:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.31%EV -13.67%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 77.69%EV -12.79%E -11.42%K -106.61%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-09-19 23:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -16.99%E -4.53%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -2.67%E -2.14%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-20 00:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -16.99%E -4.53%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -2.67%E -2.14%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-20 00:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -19.20%E -5.26%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.64%EV -3.45%E -2.78%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-20 00:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 4.75I 21.05%NM 21.10% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.90% | -0.2% | 2026-09-19 23:54 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.82% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.18% | 0.7% | 2026-09-19 23:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.50% | 1.1% | 2026-09-20 00:09 |
| Novig◎ | 4.44I 22.52%NM 22.24% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.76% | 1.3% | 2026-09-20 00:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.99% | 1.3% | 2026-09-20 00:09 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.37% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.63% | 1.7% | 2026-09-20 00:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.37% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.63% | 1.7% | 2026-09-20 00:09 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.15% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.85% | 4.1% | 2026-09-20 00:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.08% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.07% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85% | 8.1% | 2026-09-19 23:09 |