Language:English
Tai Tuivasa v Louie Sutherland
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tai Tuivasa (Local)
Prediction 66.49%1.50fair odd
EV -3.59%
Edge -2.47%
Kelly -7.97%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.48%66.72%66.43%68.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.441.441.4571.43%69.66%69.44%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Louie Sutherland (Visit)
Prediction 33.51%2.98fair odd
EV +2.87%
Edge +0.935%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.040%
assuming max odds 3.07
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.46%33.28%33.57%34.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.822.753.0737.04%35.45%36.36%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tai Tuivasa (Local): 66.49%; Louie Sutherland (Visit): 33.51%. For Louie Sutherland (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.98. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.07, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.87%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.37%EV -5.58%E -3.93%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.63%EV +2.87%E +0.935%K +1.39%G +0.040% | 3.0% | 2026-05-02 11:11 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -5.58%E -3.93%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV +2.20%E +0.721%K +1.07%G +0.024% | 3.2% | 2026-05-02 11:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -6.25%E -4.43%K -15.24%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV +2.20%E +0.721%K +1.07%G +0.024% | 3.7% | 2026-05-02 11:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -6.91%E -4.94%K -17.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV +2.20%E +0.721%K +1.07%G +0.024% | 4.2% | 2026-05-02 11:07 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -5.58%E -3.93%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -0.145%E -0.049%K -0.073%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-02 11:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -4.92%E -3.44%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -1.15%E -0.390%K -0.590%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-02 00:42 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.92%E -3.44%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -2.83%E -0.974%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-02 08:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.91%E -4.94%K -17.28%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.83%E -0.974%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -4.25%E -2.95%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -3.50%E -1.21%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-02 11:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -4.92%E -3.44%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -4.17%E -1.46%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-02 11:11 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -3.59%E -2.47%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -4.50%E -1.58%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-01 21:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -3.59%E -2.47%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -4.50%E -1.58%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-01 21:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -3.59%E -2.47%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -4.50%E -1.58%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-02 10:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.25%E -2.95%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.50%E -1.58%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-02 00:27 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.92%E -3.44%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -4.50%E -1.58%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 09:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.59%E -2.47%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -6.18%E -2.21%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.59%E -2.47%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -6.18%E -2.21%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.59%E -2.47%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -6.18%E -2.21%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.92%E -3.44%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -6.18%E -2.21%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-02 11:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.58%E -3.93%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.18%E -2.21%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-02 00:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.59%E -2.47%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.85%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.59%E -2.47%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.85%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.59%E -2.47%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.85%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.59%E -2.47%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.85%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 11:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.59%E -2.47%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.85%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.25%E -2.95%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.85%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.25%E -2.95%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.85%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.25%E -2.95%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.85%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.25%E -2.95%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.85%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.25%E -2.95%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.85%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.25%E -2.95%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.85%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-01 08:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.25%E -2.95%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.85%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-01 08:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.25%E -2.95%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.85%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.25%E -2.95%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.85%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.25%E -2.95%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.85%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.25%E -2.95%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.85%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.25%E -2.95%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.85%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.25%E -2.95%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.85%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.25%E -2.95%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.85%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-01 08:04 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -4.92%E -3.44%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -7.85%E -2.86%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-02 03:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -6.91%E -4.94%K -17.28%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -9.53%E -3.53%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-01 14:42 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 67.25% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 32.75% | -0.2% | 2026-05-02 11:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.83% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.17% | 0.3% | 2026-05-02 11:11 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.83% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.17% | 0.3% | 2026-05-02 11:11 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67% | 1.0% | 2026-05-02 10:56 |
| Novig◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.34% | 3.01I 33.22%NM 32.66% | 1.7% | 2026-05-02 11:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.26% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.74% | 1.8% | 2026-05-02 11:11 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.26% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.74% | 1.8% | 2026-05-02 11:11 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13% | 3.8% | 2026-05-02 11:11 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.34% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.79% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.0% | 2026-05-02 01:22 |