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Tahir Abdullayev v Jefferson Nascimento

Kickoff: 2026-06-27 13:10 UTC

Final: Tahir Abdullayev 1–0 Jefferson Nascimento

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tahir Abdullayev (Local)

Prediction 42.85%2.33fair odd
EV -1.43%
Edge -0.624%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.07%42.93%43.00%44.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.232.252.3047.62%44.88%44.44%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jefferson Nascimento (Visit)

Prediction 57.15%1.75fair odd
EV -2.85%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -4.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.50%57.07%57.00%57.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.661.671.7060.98%60.14%59.88%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tahir Abdullayev (Local): 42.85%; Jefferson Nascimento (Visit): 57.15%. For Tahir Abdullayev (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.33. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.30, with an expected value of -1.43%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -1.43%E -0.624%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%EV -4.00%E -2.38%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.0%2026-06-27 12:59
Pinnacle🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -1.43%E -0.624%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%EV -4.00%E -2.38%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.0%2026-06-27 12:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -1.43%E -0.624%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.57%E -2.73%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.4%2026-06-27 13:00
Bovada🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -2.72%E -1.20%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -4.00%E -2.38%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.6%2026-06-27 11:39
BetUS🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -3.15%E -1.39%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -4.57%E -2.73%K -6.82%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-27 12:59
Caesars🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.58%E -1.59%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.57%E -2.73%K -6.82%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-27 11:29
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.58%E -1.59%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.71%E -3.46%K -8.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-27 12:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.58%E -1.59%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.71%E -3.46%K -8.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-27 13:00
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.58%E -1.59%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.71%E -3.46%K -8.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-27 12:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.58%E -1.59%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.71%E -3.46%K -8.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-27 12:59
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.58%E -1.59%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.28%E -3.83%K -9.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-27 12:59
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.58%E -1.59%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.28%E -3.83%K -9.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-27 13:00
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.58%E -1.59%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.28%E -3.83%K -9.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-27 13:00
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.58%E -1.59%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.28%E -3.83%K -9.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-27 12:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.58%E -1.59%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.28%E -3.83%K -9.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-27 13:00
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.58%E -1.59%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.28%E -3.83%K -9.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-27 12:59
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.58%E -1.59%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.28%E -3.83%K -9.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-27 12:59
Bally Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.58%E -1.59%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.28%E -3.83%K -9.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-27 12:59
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.58%E -1.59%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.28%E -3.83%K -9.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-27 13:00
FanDuel🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -4.01%E -1.79%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.00%E -2.38%K -5.88%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-27 00:10
SportsBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -5.29%E -2.39%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -4.57%E -2.73%K -6.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-27 00:10
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.72%E -2.60%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.85%E -1.68%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-26 21:08
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.72%E -2.60%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.57%E -2.73%K -6.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-27 12:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.72%E -2.60%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.57%E -2.73%K -6.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-27 13:00
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.72%E -2.60%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.57%E -2.73%K -6.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-27 13:00
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.72%E -2.60%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.57%E -2.73%K -6.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-27 00:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.72%E -2.60%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.57%E -2.73%K -6.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-27 00:09
BetAnything🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.72%E -2.60%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.57%E -2.73%K -6.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-27 12:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.86%E -3.66%K -6.84%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.42%E -2.03%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-27 12:49
Fliff🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.86%E -3.66%K -6.84%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.57%E -2.73%K -6.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-27 10:09
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -9.15%E -4.32%K -8.17%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -2.85%E -1.68%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-27 05:20
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -10.01%E -4.76%K -9.10%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.57%E -2.73%K -6.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-27 12:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%0.5%2026-06-27 12:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.49%0.5%2026-06-27 13:00
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-06-27 13:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%0.9%2026-06-27 13:00
Polymarket◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%1.1%2026-06-27 13:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.87%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.13%1.2%2026-06-27 13:00
Matchbook◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.57%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.43%1.2%2026-06-27 13:00
ProphetX◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%3.0%2026-06-27 13:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.88%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.25%8.5%2026-06-27 08:30