The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sumudaerji Sumudaerji v Jesus Santos Aguilar

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 23:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sumudaerji Sumudaerji (Local)

Prediction 60.90%1.64fair odd
EV -4.99%
Edge -3.20%
Kelly -8.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.90%60.90%60.90%60.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.561.561.5664.10%64.10%64.10%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jesus Santos Aguilar (Visit)

Prediction 39.10%2.56fair odd
EV -4.99%
Edge -2.05%
Kelly -3.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.10%39.10%39.10%39.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.432.432.432.4341.15%41.15%41.15%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sumudaerji Sumudaerji (Local): 60.90%; Jesus Santos Aguilar (Visit): 39.10%. For Jesus Santos Aguilar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.43, with an expected value of -4.99%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -4.99%E -2.05%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 23:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -4.99%E -2.05%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 23:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -4.99%E -2.05%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 23:40
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -4.99%E -2.05%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 23:39
LeoVegas🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -4.99%E -2.05%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 23:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -4.99%E -2.05%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 23:40
TABtouch🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -4.99%E -2.05%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 23:40
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -4.99%E -2.05%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 23:39
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -4.99%E -2.05%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 23:39
Bally Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -4.99%E -2.05%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 23:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -4.99%E -2.05%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 23:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.99%E -3.20%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -4.99%E -2.05%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 23:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.