The School of Odds

Sullivan Cauley v Rasul Magomedov

2026-07-25 22:00 UTC — MMA

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Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Sullivan Cauley (Local)

Prediction 27.54%3.63fair odd
EV -3.62%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.54%27.54%27.54%28.27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.353.423.423.5030%29%29%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Rasul Magomedov (Visit)

Prediction 72.46%1.38fair odd
EV -3.62%
Edge -2.72%
Kelly -10.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.73%72.46%72.46%72.46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.321.331.331.3376%75%75%75%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -3.62%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -3.62%E -2.72%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-22 21:44
Ladbrokes (AU)3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.35%E -3.29%K -13.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-23 00:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.