The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sullivan Cauley v Rasul Magomedov

Kickoff: 2026-07-26 02:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sullivan Cauley (Local)

Prediction 31.97%3.13fair odd
EV +7.11%
Edge +2.12%
Kelly +3.03%
Growth +0.215%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.42%31.97%31.97%32.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.053.103.3537.04%32.79%32.26%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rasul Magomedov (Visit)

Prediction 68.03%1.47fair odd
EV -4.76%
Edge -3.40%
Kelly -11.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.16%68.03%68.03%71.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.351.331.4075.76%74.07%75.19%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sullivan Cauley (Local): 31.97%; Rasul Magomedov (Visit): 68.03%. For Sullivan Cauley (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.13. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +7.11%E +2.12%K +3.03%G +0.215%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -9.52%E -7.16%K -28.86%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-25 22:39
BetOnline.ag🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -0.882%E -0.285%K -0.420%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -4.76%E -3.40%K -11.91%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-26 01:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -13.67%E -5.06%K -8.04%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 67.16%EV -10.20%E -7.73%K -31.89%G +0.000%12.8%2026-07-26 02:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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