Language:English
Steven Asplund v Guilherme Pat
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Steven Asplund (Local)
Prediction 71.17%1.40fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.768%
Kelly -2.74%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.39
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.54%71.31%71.12%74.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.331.331.3979.37%75.24%75.19%71.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Guilherme Pat (Visit)
Prediction 28.83%3.47fair odd
EV +6.65%
Edge +1.80%
Kelly +2.46%
Growth +0.164%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.85%28.69%28.88%30.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.333.353.7031.75%29.99%29.85%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Steven Asplund (Local): 71.17%; Guilherme Pat (Visit): 28.83%. For Guilherme Pat (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.47. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.65%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -8.18%E -6.34%K -28.22%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV +6.65%E +1.80%K +2.46%G +0.164% | 4.5% | 2026-08-08 10:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -8.18%E -6.34%K -28.22%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV +6.65%E +1.80%K +2.46%G +0.164% | 4.5% | 2026-08-08 10:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -6.76%E -5.16%K -21.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV +0.889%E +0.254%K +0.356%G +0.003% | 4.9% | 2026-08-07 18:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.47%E -5.75%K -24.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.889%E +0.254%K +0.356%G +0.003% | 5.5% | 2026-08-08 06:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.03%EV -4.63%E -3.45%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.97%EV -0.552%E -0.160%K -0.225%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-08 23:28 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -5.34%E -4.01%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -0.552%E -0.160%K -0.225%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 17:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -7.47%E -5.75%K -24.91%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -0.552%E -0.160%K -0.225%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-08 13:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.63%E -3.45%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -1.99%E -0.586%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-08 22:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -6.05%E -4.58%K -18.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -1.99%E -0.586%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-08 22:38 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -6.76%E -5.16%K -21.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -1.99%E -0.586%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-08 23:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.05%E -4.58%K -18.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.43%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 23:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.05%E -4.58%K -18.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.43%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 23:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.05%E -4.58%K -18.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.43%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 23:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.05%E -4.58%K -18.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.43%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 23:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.05%E -4.58%K -18.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.43%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 23:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.05%E -4.58%K -18.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.43%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 23:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.05%E -4.58%K -18.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.43%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 23:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.05%E -4.58%K -18.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.43%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 23:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.63%E -3.45%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.88%E -1.48%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-08 23:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.56%EV -3.20%E -2.35%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.44%EV -6.03%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-08 23:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.91%E -2.90%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.32%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-08 23:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.91%E -2.90%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.32%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-08 23:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.63%E -3.45%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -6.32%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 23:24 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.63%E -3.45%K -13.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -6.32%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 23:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.34%E -4.01%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.32%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-08 23:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.34%E -4.01%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.32%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-08 23:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.34%E -4.01%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.32%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-08 22:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.34%E -4.01%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.32%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-08 22:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.34%E -4.01%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.32%E -1.94%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-08 22:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.85%EV -1.07%E -0.768%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 30.15%EV -7.18%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-08 23:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -1.78%E -1.29%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -9.20%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-08 23:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -1.78%E -1.29%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -9.20%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-08 23:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.20%E -2.35%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.20%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-08 23:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 71.43%EV -10.32%E -8.19%K -39.69%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -9.20%E -2.92%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-08 23:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 71.54% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 28.46% | -0.2% | 2026-08-08 23:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43% | 0.5% | 2026-08-08 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 0.8% | 2026-08-08 23:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.25% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.75% | 1.0% | 2026-08-08 23:30 |
| Novig◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.25% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.75% | 1.0% | 2026-08-08 23:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47% | 1.3% | 2026-08-08 23:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47% | 1.3% | 2026-08-08 23:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47% | 1.3% | 2026-08-08 23:30 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.34% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.4% | 2026-08-08 23:22 |
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