Language:English
Stephen Erceg v Tim Elliott
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Stephen Erceg (Local)
Prediction 62.64%1.60fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -4.07%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.18%62.93%62.65%65.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.521.531.5670.42%65.60%65.36%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tim Elliott (Visit)
Prediction 37.36%2.68fair odd
EV +4.60%
Edge +1.64%
Kelly +2.56%
Growth +0.118%
assuming max odds 2.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.58%37.07%37.35%38.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.542.502.8042.02%39.40%40.00%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stephen Erceg (Local): 62.64%; Tim Elliott (Visit): 37.36%. For Tim Elliott (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.68. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.60%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -7.29%E -4.93%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV +4.60%E +1.64%K +2.56%G +0.118% | 3.3% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -11.05%E -7.78%K -26.31%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -1.00%E -0.378%K -0.606%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-02 12:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -11.05%E -7.78%K -26.31%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -1.00%E -0.378%K -0.606%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-02 12:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV -5.41%E -3.58%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -2.12%E -0.810%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-02 12:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -3.53%E -2.29%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -2.87%E -1.10%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-02 12:37 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.16%E -2.72%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.87%E -1.10%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-02 12:36 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.78%E -3.15%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -2.87%E -1.10%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-02 12:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.78%E -3.15%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -2.87%E -1.10%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-02 12:31 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.04%E -4.02%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.87%E -1.10%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-02 12:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -4.16%E -2.72%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -3.62%E -1.40%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-02 12:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.53%EV -3.53%E -2.29%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.47%EV -3.99%E -1.55%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-02 12:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.44%EV -3.53%E -2.29%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.56%EV -4.36%E -1.70%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.90%EV -5.41%E -3.58%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.10%EV -4.36%E -1.70%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 12:31 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.78%E -3.15%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.74%E -1.86%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.04%E -4.02%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.74%E -1.86%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-02 12:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.28%E -1.46%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -6.60%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-02 12:31 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -2.91%E -1.87%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.60%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-02 12:31 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -2.91%E -1.87%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.60%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-02 12:31 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.53%E -2.29%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -6.60%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-02 12:31 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.53%E -2.29%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -6.60%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-02 12:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.53%E -2.29%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -6.60%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-02 12:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.53%E -2.29%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -6.60%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-02 12:31 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.53%E -2.29%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -6.60%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-02 12:31 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.53%E -2.29%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -6.60%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-02 12:31 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.53%E -2.29%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -6.60%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-02 12:31 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.53%E -2.29%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -6.60%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-02 12:31 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.53%E -2.29%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -6.60%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-02 12:31 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.53%E -2.29%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -6.60%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-02 12:31 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.53%E -2.29%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -6.60%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-02 12:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.16%E -2.72%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.60%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-02 12:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.16%E -2.72%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.60%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-02 12:31 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.16%E -2.72%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.60%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-02 12:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.16%E -2.72%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.60%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-02 12:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.16%E -2.72%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.60%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-02 12:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.41%E -3.58%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -6.60%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.91%E -1.87%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.47%E -3.46%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 12:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.18%EV -5.41%E -3.58%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -11.09%E -4.66%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 63.17% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 36.83% | 0.2% | 2026-05-02 12:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92% | 0.3% | 2026-05-02 12:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92% | 0.3% | 2026-05-02 12:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92% | 0.3% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.1% | 2026-05-02 12:41 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.70% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.30% | 1.3% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.21% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.79% | 1.4% | 2026-05-02 12:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.76% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 36.24% | 1.8% | 2026-05-02 12:40 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.74% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 36.97% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.28% | 6.9% | 2026-05-02 12:29 |