The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Stephen Erceg v Ramazonbek Temirov

Kickoff: 2026-07-25 17:55 UTC

Final: Stephen Erceg 0–1 Ramazonbek Temirov

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stephen Erceg (Local)

Prediction 49.67%2.01fair odd
EV -0.661%
Edge -0.330%
Kelly -0.661%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.32%49.78%49.81%51.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.911.922.0055.56%52.33%52.22%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ramazonbek Temirov (Visit)

Prediction 50.33%1.99fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.690%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.65%50.22%50.19%51.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.881.871.9656.18%53.12%53.48%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stephen Erceg (Local): 49.67%; Ramazonbek Temirov (Visit): 50.33%. For Stephen Erceg (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.01. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.00, with an expected value of -0.661%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -0.661%E -0.330%K -0.661%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -5.88%E -3.15%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-25 17:29
Pinnacle1.96I 51.02%NM 49.61%EV -2.65%E -1.35%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.39%EV -2.86%E -1.48%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.8%2026-07-25 17:35
Betsson1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -2.65%E -1.35%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -6.39%E -3.43%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-25 11:50
NordicBet1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -2.65%E -1.35%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -6.39%E -3.43%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-25 11:49
BetOnline.ag1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.14%E -1.61%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.88%E -3.15%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-25 17:20
BetUS1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.14%E -1.61%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.88%E -3.15%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-25 17:25
Hard Rock Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.14%E -1.61%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.88%E -3.15%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-21 14:20
Caesars1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.14%E -1.61%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.88%E -3.15%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-24 19:47
Coolbet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.14%E -1.61%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.88%E -3.15%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-25 17:30
Virgin Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -3.14%E -1.61%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -6.39%E -3.43%K -7.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-21 14:20
Unibet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -3.14%E -1.61%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -6.39%E -3.43%K -7.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-21 14:20
LiveScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -3.14%E -1.61%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -6.39%E -3.43%K -7.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-21 14:20
TABtouch1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -3.64%E -1.88%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -6.89%E -3.72%K -8.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-21 14:20
ATG (SE)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -3.64%E -1.88%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -6.89%E -3.72%K -8.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-21 14:20
PMU (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -3.64%E -1.88%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -6.89%E -3.72%K -8.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 15:45
PlayUp1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -4.63%E -2.41%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -6.89%E -3.72%K -8.10%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-24 04:40
PointsBet (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.13%E -2.69%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.87%E -2.03%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-25 17:15
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.13%E -2.69%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.87%E -2.03%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-23 14:15
Bet Right1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -5.13%E -2.69%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -4.88%E -2.58%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-25 17:30
Unibet (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.63%E -2.96%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.37%E -2.30%K -4.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-25 17:14
TAB1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.63%E -2.96%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.37%E -2.30%K -4.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-22 00:49
FanDuel1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%EV -6.12%E -3.24%K -6.88%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%EV -1.35%E -0.690%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-25 12:20
DraftKings1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -6.12%E -3.24%K -6.88%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -2.86%E -1.48%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-25 17:20
SportsBet1.88I 53.19%NM 51.04%EV -6.62%E -3.52%K -7.52%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.96%EV -1.35%E -0.690%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-25 12:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -7.12%E -3.81%K -8.18%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -2.36%E -1.22%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-25 12:19
BetAnything1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.12%E -3.81%K -8.18%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.88%E -3.15%K -6.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-25 17:25
Betr (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -8.11%E -4.38%K -9.54%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -3.37%E -1.75%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-25 12:30
Grosvenor1.85I 54.05%NM 49.04%EV -8.11%E -4.38%K -9.54%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.96%EV -10.41%E -5.85%K -13.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-21 14:20
Winamax (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 49.45%EV -8.61%E -4.68%K -10.25%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.55%EV -9.41%E -5.23%K -11.76%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-25 17:14
Paddy Power1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -9.10%E -4.98%K -10.97%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -3.87%E -2.03%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-25 12:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -9.10%E -4.98%K -10.97%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -3.87%E -2.03%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-25 14:15
Betclic (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -10.59%E -5.89%K -13.24%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -4.37%E -2.30%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-24 20:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly1.98I 50.51%NM 50.50%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.50%0.0%2026-07-25 17:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.37%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.63%0.3%2026-07-25 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%0.5%2026-07-25 17:35
Polymarket2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-07-25 14:55
Novig2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-07-25 17:40
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-07-25 17:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-07-25 17:40
ProphetX2.01I 49.75%NM 48.98%1.93I 51.81%NM 51.02%1.6%2026-07-25 17:35
Matchbook1.97I 50.76%NM 49.10%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.90%3.4%2026-07-25 17:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet2.09I 47.85%NM 44.45%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.70%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.86%7.7%2026-07-23 04:59