Language:English
Sofia Montenegro v Ernesta Kareckaite
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sofia Montenegro (Local)
Prediction 36.71%2.72fair odd
EV +30.34%
Edge +8.55%
Kelly +11.90%
Growth +3.61%
assuming max odds 3.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.10%37.02%36.59%42.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.582.603.5544.44%38.76%38.46%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ernesta Kareckaite (Visit)
Prediction 63.29%1.58fair odd
EV +3.16%
Edge +1.94%
Kelly +5.01%
Growth +0.158%
assuming max odds 1.63
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.99%62.98%63.41%72.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.511.501.6375.76%66.03%66.67%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sofia Montenegro (Local): 36.71%; Ernesta Kareckaite (Visit): 63.29%. For Sofia Montenegro (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.72. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +30.34%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV +30.34%E +8.55%K +11.90%G +3.61% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -16.46%E -12.47%K -51.45%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-02-26 15:43 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV +0.964%E +0.351%K +0.551%G +0.005% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -5.70%E -3.83%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-02-25 12:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +0.964%E +0.351%K +0.551%G +0.005% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.87%E -6.16%K -20.16%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-25 08:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -0.872%E -0.323%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -5.70%E -3.83%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-25 05:47 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -0.872%E -0.323%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -6.34%E -4.28%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-25 03:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -0.872%E -0.323%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.97%E -4.74%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-25 06:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -0.872%E -0.323%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.97%E -4.74%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-25 06:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -2.71%E -1.02%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -5.07%E -3.38%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-02-25 03:14 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -2.71%E -1.02%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -5.07%E -3.38%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-02-25 03:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -2.71%E -1.02%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.97%E -4.74%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-25 15:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -2.71%E -1.02%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.97%E -4.74%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-25 15:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.81%E -1.45%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.07%E -3.38%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-25 13:28 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.54%E -1.75%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.07%E -3.38%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-25 23:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.54%E -1.75%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.07%E -3.38%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-25 15:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.54%E -1.75%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.07%E -3.38%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-25 15:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.54%E -1.75%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.07%E -3.38%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-25 15:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.54%E -1.75%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.07%E -3.38%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-25 15:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.54%E -1.75%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.07%E -3.38%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-25 15:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.54%E -1.75%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.07%E -3.38%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-25 15:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.54%E -1.75%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.07%E -3.38%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-25 15:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.54%E -1.75%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.07%E -3.38%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-25 15:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.54%E -1.75%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.07%E -3.38%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-25 15:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.54%E -1.75%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.07%E -3.38%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-25 15:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.54%E -1.75%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.07%E -3.38%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-25 15:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.54%E -1.75%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.07%E -3.38%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-25 15:14 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.54%E -1.75%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.07%E -3.38%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-25 15:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.38%E -2.50%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.07%E -3.38%K -10.14%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-25 23:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -6.38%E -2.50%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -5.70%E -3.83%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-25 23:14 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -6.38%E -2.50%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -5.70%E -3.83%K -11.64%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-25 22:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.99%EV -7.11%E -2.81%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.01%EV -1.91%E -1.23%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-25 13:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.24%EV -7.48%E -2.97%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.76%EV -1.27%E -0.817%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-26 07:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96%EV -9.68%E -3.94%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%EV -0.641%E -0.408%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-25 17:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -10.05%E -4.10%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -1.91%E -1.23%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-25 22:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -11.15%E -4.61%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV +0.624%E +0.393%K +1.06%G +0.007% | 4.2% | 2026-02-25 17:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -11.89%E -4.95%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV +0.624%E +0.393%K +1.06%G +0.007% | 4.6% | 2026-02-25 22:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -11.89%E -4.95%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -0.641%E -0.408%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-26 06:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -12.62%E -5.30%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV +0.624%E +0.393%K +1.06%G +0.007% | 4.9% | 2026-02-25 18:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.95%EV -13.35%E -5.66%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.05%EV -0.641%E -0.408%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-25 18:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -17.39%E -7.73%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV +3.16%E +1.94%K +5.01%G +0.158% | 5.8% | 2026-02-25 18:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -17.39%E -7.73%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV +2.52%E +1.56%K +4.07%G +0.103% | 6.2% | 2026-02-25 18:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -17.39%E -7.73%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV +2.52%E +1.56%K +4.07%G +0.103% | 6.2% | 2026-02-25 18:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58% | 4.1% | 2026-02-26 03:34 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88% | 4.9% | 2026-02-26 07:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 60.39% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 39.61% | 63.9% | 2026-02-26 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 60.39% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 39.61% | 63.9% | 2026-02-26 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 60.24% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 39.76% | 64.4% | 2026-02-26 16:25 |
| Novig◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 59.68% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 40.32% | 67.6% | 2026-02-26 16:25 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.55% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.81% | 35.00I 2.86%NM 2.63% | 8.5% | 2026-02-25 12:24 |