The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Simeon Powell v Emiliano Sordi

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 03:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Simeon Powell (Local)

Prediction 80.28%1.25fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -5.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.48%80.28%80.91%81.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.211.231.2385.47%82.59%81.30%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Emiliano Sordi (Visit)

Prediction 19.72%5.07fair odd
EV +3.54%
Edge +0.674%
Kelly +0.833%
Growth +0.029%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.22%19.72%19.09%23.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.394.005.2525.00%22.79%25.00%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Simeon Powell (Local): 80.28%; Emiliano Sordi (Visit): 19.72%. For Emiliano Sordi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.07. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.54%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -6.07%E -5.19%K -35.73%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV +3.54%E +0.674%K +0.833%G +0.029%4.5%2026-05-03 02:50
BetMGM🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.27%E -4.47%K -29.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -1.39%E -0.278%K -0.348%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-03 02:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.07%E -5.19%K -35.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.39%E -0.278%K -0.348%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 02:55
Neds🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.07%E -5.19%K -35.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.39%E -0.278%K -0.348%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 02:55
FanDuel🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -1.26%E -1.02%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -13.22%E -3.01%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-02 11:40
Grosvenor🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -1.26%E -1.02%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -21.11%E -5.28%K -7.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-01 10:24
Unibet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -1.26%E -1.02%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -21.11%E -5.28%K -7.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-01 10:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -1.26%E -1.02%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -21.11%E -5.28%K -7.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-01 10:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -1.26%E -1.02%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -21.11%E -5.28%K -7.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-01 10:24
LeoVegas🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -1.26%E -1.02%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -21.11%E -5.28%K -7.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-01 10:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -1.26%E -1.02%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -21.11%E -5.28%K -7.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-01 10:24
Bally Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -1.26%E -1.02%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -21.11%E -5.28%K -7.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-01 10:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.