Language:English
Shara Magomedov v Michel Pereira
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Shara Magomedov (Local)
Prediction 77.50%1.29fair odd
EV -0.025%
Edge -0.020%
Kelly -0.087%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.62%77.21%77.55%79.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.241.241.2984.03%80.93%80.65%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Michel Pereira (Visit)
Prediction 22.50%4.44fair odd
EV +3.50%
Edge +0.761%
Kelly +0.972%
Growth +0.034%
assuming max odds 4.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.69%22.79%22.45%26.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.144.104.6027.78%24.18%24.39%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Shara Magomedov (Local): 77.50%; Michel Pereira (Visit): 22.50%. For Michel Pereira (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.44. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.50%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neds🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -7.00%E -5.83%K -35.00%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +3.50%E +0.761%K +0.972%G +0.034% | 5.1% | 2026-06-27 17:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -7.00%E -5.83%K -35.00%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +3.50%E +0.761%K +0.972%G +0.034% | 5.1% | 2026-06-27 17:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -5.45%E -4.47%K -24.77%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +1.25%E +0.278%K +0.357%G +0.004% | 4.2% | 2026-06-27 17:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -5.45%E -4.47%K -24.77%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -0.999%E -0.227%K -0.294%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-27 17:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.96%EV -4.68%E -3.80%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.04%EV -2.12%E -0.488%K -0.634%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-27 17:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.60%EV -3.13%E -2.50%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 22.40%EV -2.57%E -0.595%K -0.773%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-06-27 18:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.38%EV -2.35%E -1.87%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 4.31I 23.20%NM 22.62%EV -3.02%E -0.702%K -0.914%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-06-27 17:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -4.68%E -3.80%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -3.25%E -0.756%K -0.985%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-27 12:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -4.68%E -3.80%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -3.25%E -0.756%K -0.985%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-27 12:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -4.68%E -3.80%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -4.37%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-27 17:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -4.68%E -3.80%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -4.37%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-27 17:57 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.37%EV -3.90%E -3.15%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.24I 23.58%NM 22.63%EV -4.60%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-27 17:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -3.90%E -3.15%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -5.50%E -1.31%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-27 15:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.68%E -3.80%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.50%E -1.31%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-27 14:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.45%E -4.47%K -24.77%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.50%E -1.31%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-27 17:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.85%EV -3.13%E -2.50%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.15%EV -6.62%E -1.60%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-27 14:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.85%EV -3.13%E -2.50%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.15%EV -6.62%E -1.60%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-27 15:08 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.72%EV -7.78%E -6.53%K -40.92%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.28%EV -6.62%E -1.60%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-27 17:58 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.90%E -3.15%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.75%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-27 14:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.90%E -3.15%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.75%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-27 14:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.90%E -3.15%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.75%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-27 14:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.90%E -3.15%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.75%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-27 14:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.90%E -3.15%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.75%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-27 14:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.90%E -3.15%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.75%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-27 14:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.90%E -3.15%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.75%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-27 14:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.90%E -3.15%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.75%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-27 14:29 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.90%E -3.15%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.75%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-27 14:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.90%E -3.15%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -7.75%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-27 14:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -4.68%E -3.80%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -8.87%E -2.19%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-27 17:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.90%E -3.15%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -10.00%E -2.50%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-27 14:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -3.90%E -3.15%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -11.12%E -2.82%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-27 17:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.70%EV -7.00%E -5.83%K -35.00%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -11.12%E -2.82%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-27 17:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -3.13%E -2.50%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -13.37%E -3.47%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-27 05:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.13%E -2.50%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -15.62%E -4.17%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-27 03:48 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.13%E -2.50%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -15.62%E -4.17%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-27 14:29 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -3.13%E -2.50%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -17.87%E -4.90%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-27 17:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -0.025%E -0.020%K -0.087%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -19.00%E -5.28%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-20 06:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 79.21% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.79% | 0.2% | 2026-06-27 17:59 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.18% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.82% | 0.7% | 2026-06-27 17:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.68% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 21.32% | 0.9% | 2026-06-27 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-06-27 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-06-27 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-06-27 18:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-06-27 18:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.20% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.80% | 1.0% | 2026-06-27 18:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66% | 5.3% | 2026-06-27 18:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.17% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.0% | 2026-06-27 13:19 |