Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shannon Clark v Lucero Acosta

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 00:30 UTC

Final: Shannon Clark 1–0 Lucero Acosta

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

80%

20%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shannon Clark (Local)

Prediction 79.68%1.25fair odd

EV -2.79%

Edge -2.28%

Kelly -12.67%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

79.04%79.68%79.68%81.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.171.201.201.2285.47%83.57%83.33%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lucero Acosta (Visit)

Prediction 20.32%4.92fair odd

EV +1.59%

Edge +0.317%

Kelly +0.396%

Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

18.96%20.32%20.32%20.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.604.834.905.0021.74%20.69%20.41%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Shannon Clark (Local): 79.68%; Lucero Acosta (Visit): 20.32%. For Lucero Acosta (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.92. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.59%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.77%E -5.79%K -39.83%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +1.59%E +0.317%K +0.396%G +0.006%	5.5%	2026-10-15 20:00
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 80.33%EV -4.38%E -3.65%K -21.90%G +0.000%	4.90I 20.41%NM 19.67%EV -0.446%E -0.091%K -0.114%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-10-17 00:24
FanDuel🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%EV -2.79%E -2.28%K -12.67%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV -6.54%E -1.42%K -1.82%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-10-17 00:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.