The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sergio Cossio Dominguez v Pedro Carvalho

Kickoff: 2026-04-16 20:50 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sergio Cossio Dominguez (Local)

Prediction 53.43%1.87fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.22%53.43%53.43%55.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.751.751.8358.82%57.17%57.14%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pedro Carvalho (Visit)

Prediction 46.57%2.15fair odd
EV +0.127%
Edge +0.059%
Kelly +0.111%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.16%46.57%46.57%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.011.962.1551.02%49.66%51.02%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sergio Cossio Dominguez (Local): 53.43%; Pedro Carvalho (Visit): 46.57%. For Pedro Carvalho (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.147. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.150, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.127%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -9.17%E -5.39%K -13.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV +0.127%E +0.059%K +0.111%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 20:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -9.17%E -5.39%K -13.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV +0.127%E +0.059%K +0.111%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 20:35
FanDuel🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -5.96%E -3.39%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -1.27%E -0.599%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-15 23:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.22%E -1.22%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.86%E -3.43%K -6.86%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-16 20:34
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%EV -6.50%E -3.71%K -8.67%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -8.26%E -4.19%K -8.51%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-16 14:35
LeoVegas🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%EV -6.50%E -3.71%K -8.67%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%EV -8.72%E -4.45%K -9.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-16 14:35
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%EV -6.50%E -3.71%K -8.67%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%EV -8.72%E -4.45%K -9.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-16 14:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%EV -6.50%E -3.71%K -8.67%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%EV -8.72%E -4.45%K -9.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-16 14:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%EV -6.50%E -3.71%K -8.67%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%EV -8.72%E -4.45%K -9.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-16 14:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%EV -6.50%E -3.71%K -8.67%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%EV -8.72%E -4.45%K -9.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-16 14:35
Bally Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%EV -6.50%E -3.71%K -8.67%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%EV -8.72%E -4.45%K -9.08%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-16 14:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.